Hurricanes and global warming
Hurricanes and global warming
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DOI：
10.1175/bams-86-11-1571
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发表时间：
2005-11
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
C. Landsea
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Landsea
源自：K. Emanuel nature, 436, 686-688 (2005)；伊曼纽尔回答。人为气候变化有可能通过海洋表面温度变暖而略微增加热带气旋的强度1。伊曼纽尔在大西洋和北太平洋西部盆地展示了海洋表面温度与热带气旋破坏性之间惊人的联系。然而，我对他的分析提出质疑，理由如下：它没有恰当地代表所描述的观察结果；使用他的大西洋偏见消除方案可能是不合理的；而对影响美国大陆的热带气旋更长的时间序列的进一步调查没有显示出破坏性增加的趋势。这些因素表明，近年来并没有出现“前所未有”的热带气旋活动，而在20世纪中期的最后一个活跃期，飓风强度与之相当，甚至更大。
Arising from: K. Emanuel Nature436, 686–688 (2005); K. Emanuel reply.Anthropogenic climate change has the potential for slightly increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones through warming of sea surface temperatures1. Emanuel2 has shown a striking and surprising association between sea surface temperatures and destructiveness by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and western North Pacific basins. However, I question his analysis on the following grounds: it does not properly represent the observations described; the use of his Atlantic bias-removal scheme may not be warranted; and further investigation of a substantially longer time series for tropical cyclones affecting the continental United States does not show a tendency for increasing destructiveness. These factors indicate that instead of “unprecedented” tropical cyclone activity having occurred in recent years, hurricane intensity was equal or even greater during the last active period in the mid-twentieth century.