Properties of Flare-imminent versus Flare-quiet Active Regions from the Chromosphere through the Corona. II. Nonparametric Discriminant Analysis Results from the NWRA Classification Infrastructure (NCI)
Properties of Flare-imminent versus Flare-quiet Active Regions from the Chromosphere through the Corona. II. Nonparametric Discriminant Analysis Results from the NWRA Classification Infrastructure (NCI)
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DOI：
10.3847/1538-4357/ac9c04
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发表时间：
2022-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Leka;K. Dissauer;G. Barnes;E. Wagner
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文献类型：
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作者：
K. Leka;K. Dissauer;G. Barnes;E. Wagner
太阳动力学观测台/大气成像组件（AIA），AIA活动区域补丁数据库（论文I）的活动区域为目标的时间序列图像的大样本被用来调查是否参数描述的日冕，过渡区，色球发射可以区分一个区域，将立即产生太阳耀斑从一个不会。直接和运行差异图像的矩分析的基础上的参数化提供了物理上可解释的结果，从非参数判别分析。在包括24小时和6小时有效期的四个事件定义中，160个基于图像的参数捕获大气的一般状态，快速亮度变化和长期强度演变。我们发现顶级Brier技能得分在0.07-0.33范围内，真实技能统计在0.68-0.82范围内（两者都取决于事件定义），接收器操作特征技能得分高于0.8。总排放量可以显着执行，可以急剧增加或减少亮度，虽然平均亮度的措施不，证明了众所周知的活动区的大小/耀斑生产力的关系。一旦一个区域产生耀斑，活跃区域的日冕等离子体似乎保持高温。94 μ m滤波器数据提供了具有鉴别能力的最多参数，表明它受益于对多个物理状态进行采样。特别是，使用跑差图像的高阶矩进行分类的成功表明，耀斑即将发生的区域倾向于显示短暂的小规模增亮事件。描述日冕演化的参数可以提供耀斑临期的指标，但与“静态”参数相比没有优先权。最后，所有参数和NPDA导出的概率可供社区进行进一步研究。
A large sample of active-region-targeted time-series images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the AIA Active Region Patch database (Paper I) is used to investigate whether parameters describing the coronal, transition region, and chromospheric emission can differentiate a region that will imminently produce a solar flare from one that will not. Parameterizations based on moment analysis of direct and running-difference images provide for physically interpretable results from nonparametric discriminant analysis. Across four event definitions including both 24 hr and 6 hr validity periods, 160 image-based parameters capture the general state of the atmosphere, rapid brightness changes, and longer-term intensity evolution. We find top Brier Skill Scores in the 0.07–0.33 range, True Skill Statistics in the 0.68–0.82 range (both depending on event definition), and Receiver Operating Characteristic Skill Scores above 0.8. Total emission can perform notably, as can steeply increasing or decreasing brightness, although mean brightness measures do not, demonstrating the well-known active-region size/flare productivity relation. Once a region is flare productive, the active-region coronal plasma appears to stay hot. The 94 Å filter data provide the most parameters with discriminating power, with indications that it benefits from sampling multiple physical regimes. In particular, classification success using higher-order moments of running-difference images indicate a propensity for flare-imminent regions to display short-lived small-scale brightening events. Parameters describing the evolution of the corona can provide flare-imminent indicators, but at no preference over “static” parameters. Finally, all parameters and NPDA-derived probabilities are available to the community for additional research.