Is it possible for China to reduce its total CO2 emissions
Is it possible for China to reduce its total CO2 emissions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2015.02.041
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发表时间：
2015-04
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Huanan Li;Yi-Ming Wei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Huanan Li;Yi-Ming Wei
中国的二氧化碳排放一直是国内外学者关注的焦点。然而，很少有文章分析中国的二氧化碳排放总量是否可以实现以及如何实现。这对实现中国未来的二氧化碳减排目标具有重要意义。本文基于投入产出分解分析模型和动态规划方法，分析了影响中国碳排放总量的因素，并探讨了中国是否有可能以及如何有可能减少其二氧化碳排放总量。研究结果表明，碳强度是中国二氧化碳排放量减少的主要驱动力，产业结构对中国二氧化碳排放量增量的影响近年来由正向负转变。在经济增长的前提下，碳强度下降与产业结构调整应协调一致。中国二氧化碳排放总量的减少在短期内很难实现，但可以选择一种有效的发展模式，并提出一些政策建议。
China's CO2emissions have been the focus of attention for domestic and foreign scholars. However, very few articles have analysed whether and how a reduction of China's total CO2emissions can be achieved. This is of great significance for meeting China's future CO2emissions reduction targets. Based on input–output decomposition analysis model and dynamic programming approach, this paper analyses the factors affecting China's total carbon emissions and discuss whether and how it could be possible for China to reduce its total CO2emissions. The results show that carbon intensity is a major driver for the reduction of China's CO2emissions and that the impact of industry structure on the increment of China's CO2emissions has changed from positive to negative in recent years. Under the premise of economic growth, carbon intensity decline and industrial structure adjustment should be coordinated. A reduction in the total amount of China's CO2emissions is difficult to achieve in the short term, but an effective development mode can be selected with some policy implications suggested.