Housing Market Sentiment and Intervention Effectiveness: Evidence from China
Housing Market Sentiment and Intervention Effectiveness: Evidence from China
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2845345
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发表时间：
2016-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Zhengyi Zhou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhengyi Zhou
本文研究了房地产市场情绪和政府干预之间的相互作用。本文以中国特有的微观层面数据为基础，运用金融文献中的技术构建了一个住房市场情绪指数。该指数与官方来源的信心指数显著相关。我们发现，房地产市场的回报率随着同期情绪的增加而增加，高情绪之后是低回报。紧缩政策不能减少乐观情绪，情绪高涨会对紧缩政策的有效性产生负面影响。这种负面影响在房价对情绪上升敏感的地区尤为显著。
This paper studies the interaction between housing market sentiment and government interventions. With a unique micro-level data from China, we construct a housing market sentiment index by applying the techniques in the finance literature. This index is significantly correlated with the confidence indexes from official sources. We find that housing market returns increase with contemporaneous sentiment, and high sentiment is followed by low returns. Tightening policies cannot reduce optimism, and high sentiment negatively impacts the effectiveness of tightening policies. This negative impact is especially significant in the zones where housing prices are sensitive to increasing sentiment.