Changes in Implicit Flood Risk Premiums: Empirical Evidence from the Housing Market
Changes in Implicit Flood Risk Premiums: Empirical Evidence from the Housing Market
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1850671
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发表时间：
2012-06
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Okmyung Bin;C. Landry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Okmyung Bin;C. Landry
享乐估价模型表明，销售价格可以资本化财产风险因素，如洪水区；在其他条件相同的情况下，风险较低的房产会溢价出售。先前的研究表明，在风暴过后，反映洪水风险的价格差异会变得更大。我们对北卡罗来纳州皮特县的这些发现进行了重新检验，在差异中差异的框架内使用了多次风暴事件，并比较了洪水地区最近的房地产销售样本的价格差异。在1996年飓风弗兰之前，我们没有发现洪水区存在的市场风险溢价，但我们发现重大洪水事件后的价格差异显著，飓风弗兰后下降5.7%，飓风弗洛伊德后下降8.8%。另一个独立模型的结果显示，在没有重大风暴相关洪水影响的一段时间内，在洪水区出售的房屋的风险溢价在6.0%到20.2%之间，但这种效应随着时间的推移而减弱，在飓风弗洛伊德之后的5到6年基本上消失了。持续效应的缺乏表明，买家和卖家的风险认知可能会随着灾害事件的流行而改变，购房者在竞标房产时不知道洪水风险和保险要求。
Hedonic valuation models have shown that sales prices can capitalize property risk factors, such as flood zone; properties facing lower risk sell at a premium, all else being equal. Previous research has indicated that price differentials reflecting risk of flooding become much larger in the wake of a storm. We re-examine these findings for Pitt County, North Carolina, using multiple storm events within a difference-in-differences framework, and we compare flood zone price differentials for a more recent sample of property sales. Prior to Hurricane Fran in 1996, we detect no market risk premium for the presence in a flood zone, but we find significant price differentials after major flooding events, amounting to a 5.7% decrease after Hurricane Fran and 8.8% decrease after Hurricane Floyd. Results from a separate model that examines more recent data covering a period without significant storm-related flood impacts indicate a significant risk premium ranging between 6.0% and 20.2% for homes sold in the flood zone, but this effect is diminishing over time, essentially disappearing about 5 or 6 years after Hurricane Floyd. The lack of a persistent effect suggests that buyers’ and sellers’ risk perceptions may change with the prevalence of hazard events and that homebuyers are unaware of flood risks and insurance requirements when bidding on properties.