Favorite-Longshot Bias in Parimutuel Betting: an Evolutionary Explanation
Favorite-Longshot Bias in Parimutuel Betting: an Evolutionary Explanation
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派利分成投注中的热门-冷门偏差：进化解释
DOI：
10.1016/j.jebo.2017.05.001
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Atsushi Kajii and Takahiro Watanabe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Akira Okada;Akira Okada;Atsushi Kajii and Takahiro Watanabe
偏好-远景偏差（Favorite-longshotbias，FLB）是指一种观察到的趋势，即“远景”被高估，而偏好被低估。我们提供了一个进化的解释FLB同注分彩投注使用一个简单的市场模型。如果一天的总净收益为负，投注者有一定的概率被迫退出。由于积极的跟踪，任何策略的预期收益都是负的，因此从长远来看，每个代理人最终都必须失败并消失。那些看好前景的人有更好的机会获得罕见但巨大的收益，使他们能够比那些押注热门的人生存更长时间。从长远来看，这种相对优势会导致对长期目标的高估。
Favorite–longshot bias (FLB) refers to an observed tendency whereby “longshots” are overvalued and favorites are undervalued. We offer an evolutionary explanation for FLB in pari-mutuel betting using a simple market model. A bettor is forced to quit with some probability if his total net gain in one day is negative. Because of a positive track take, the expected returns of any strategy are negative, and so every agent must eventually lose and disappear in the long run. Those who favor longshots have a better chance of getting ahead with rare but large gains, enabling them to survive for longer than those who bet on favorites. This relative advantage results in overvaluation of longshots in the long run.