The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross
The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross
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跨期凯恩斯十字
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ludwig Straub
中科院分区：
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作者：
Adrien Auclert;M. Rognlie;Ludwig Straub
我们论证了跨期边际消费倾向(IMPC)在训练具有异质代理人和名义刚性的一般均衡模型中的重要性。在基准情况下，产出对政府支出或税收路径变化的动态反应由涉及iMPC的方程给出，我们称之为跨期凯恩斯交叉。财政乘数只取决于iMPC和公共赤字之间的相互作用。我们给出了iMPC的经验估计，并认为它们与代表人-代理人、两个代理人和单资产异质代理人模型不一致，但可以被两个资产的模型匹配。在数量上，与经验的iMPC相匹配的模型预测，即使货币政策积极、税收扭曲、投资被挤出，赤字融资的财政乘数也会大于1。这些模型还意味着，涉及私人借贷的冲击会得到更大的放大，正如我们在去杠杆化的一个应用中所阐述的那样。
We demonstrate the importance of intertemporal marginal propensities to consume (iMPCs) in disciplining general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents and nominal rigidities. In a benchmark case, the dynamic response of output to a change in the path of government spending or taxes is given by an equation involving iMPCs, which we call the intertemporal Keynesian cross. Fiscal multipliers depend only on the interaction between iMPCs and public deficits. We provide empirical estimates of iMPCs and argue that they are inconsistent with representative-agent, two-agent and one-asset heterogeneous-agent models, but can be matched by models with two assets. Quantitatively, models that match empirical iMPCs predict deficit-financed fiscal multipliers that are larger than one, even if monetary policy is active, taxation is distortionary, and investment is crowded out. These models also imply larger amplification of shocks that involve private borrowing, as we illustrate in an application to deleveraging.