China's Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today About China's Economic Growth Tomorrow
China's Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today About China's Economic Growth Tomorrow
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DOI：
10.1016/j.worlddev.2007.09.013
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发表时间：
2008-10-01
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Holz, Carsten A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Holz, Carsten A.
本文从两个方面分析了中国未来的经济增长前景以及未来经济增长的潜在驱动力。它首先提出的问题是，中国最近的经济发展在多大程度上符合发展经济学和贸易理论中确定的标准增长模式。第二，GDP被分解为收入构成要素，在改革时期，这些要素又被解释为劳动力的数量和质量，未来的GDP可以根据现在的劳动力数据重新组合。总体而言，中国的经济增长可能会以目前的速度持续到2015年，然后逐渐放缓。这种增长有许多影响。(C)2008爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
This paper examines China's future growth prospects and the potential drivers of future growth using two approaches. It first asks in how far China's recent economic development matches standard growth patterns identified in development economics and trade theory. Second, GDP is decomposed into income components, which in turn are explained, for the reform period, by the quantity and quality of labor; future GDP can then be re-composed from future labor data available today. Overall, China's economic growth is likely to continue at current rates through 2015 before it gradually slows. Such a growth has numerous implications. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.