Examining the Important Factors Affecting the Decision to Cease Driving by Elder Drivers: Case Study of Toyota City, Japan
Examining the Important Factors Affecting the Decision to Cease Driving by Elder Drivers: Case Study of Toyota City, Japan
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研究影响老年司机停止驾驶决定的重要因素：日本丰田市案例研究
DOI：
10.11175/eastsats.5.480
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yasuhiro Mimura
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jia Yang，Keiichi Higuchi;Ryosuke Ando;Yasuhiro Mimura
本研究旨在调查日本地方城市中影响停止驾驶意愿的重要因素。以丰田市321名老年驾驶员为研究对象进行实证分析。在一个框架内，使用一个三变量有序概率模型来测量驾驶焦虑、继续驾驶的意图和放弃驾驶执照的意图。应用Gibbs Sampler算法估计未知参数。主要调查结果表明：（1）74岁以上的老年驾驶员比69 ~ 74岁的老年驾驶员更愿意交回驾驶证;（2）喜欢驾驶的老年驾驶员比其他驾驶员更不愿意停止驾驶;（3）驾驶焦虑与交回驾驶证意愿之间存在协同效应;（4）继续驾驶意愿与归还驾驶证意愿之间存在互补效应。
This study aims to investigate important factors affecting intention for ceasing driving in the local city in Japan. 321 elder driver data collected in Toyota City are used for empirical analysis. One trivariate ordered probit model is used to measure anxiety about driving, the intention for continuing driving and that for surrendering driving licenses in one framework. The Gibbs Sampler algorithm is applied to estimate the unknown parameters. The major findings indicate: 1) elder drivers more than 74 years old are willing to return their driving licenses compared to elder drivers between 69 and 74 years old; 2) elder drivers liking to drive are unwilling to cease driving compared to other drivers; 3) there is a synergetic effect between anxiety about driving with intention for surrendering driving licenses; and 4) there is a complementary effect between intention for continuing driving and that for returning driving licenses as we expected.