China's food security challenge: Effects of food habit changes on requirements for arable land and water
China's food security challenge: Effects of food habit changes on requirements for arable land and water
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.053
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发表时间：
2019-08-20
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Zhu, Yongnan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
He, Guohua;Zhao, Yong;Zhu, Yongnan
确保充足的粮食供应是中国面临的最重要挑战。随着几十年来人们饮食习惯的急剧变化，对耕地和灌溉用水的需求也发生了变化，这无疑增加了确保中国粮食安全的不确定性。本研究使用从多个来源收集的数据，量化了1981年至2016年期间中国的饮食习惯如何影响耕地和水的需求，并预测了确保国家粮食安全所需的耕地和灌溉用水量。结果表明，在过去的30年里，饮食习惯的变化导致了对耕地和灌溉用水需求的增加。1981年，粮食消费需要1.24亿公顷耕地和1590亿立方米灌溉水;然而，这些价值在2016年分别增加到1.37亿公顷和1840亿立方米。此外，饮食习惯的变化已超过农业技术水平，成为1996年后人均耕地和水需求增加的主要原因。在目前的饮食习惯下，与2016年相比，预计人口高峰出现时（2032年），对耕地和灌溉用水的需求将分别增加14%和13%。但是，如果未来遵循中国营养学家推荐的饮食习惯，与目前的饮食模式相比，将需要更多的耕地和灌溉用水来满足中国的需求。在此基础上，提出了保障我国粮食安全的对策建议。(C)2019爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Ensuring adequate supply of food is the most important challenge facing China. With the dramatic change in food habits over the past few decades, the demand for arable land and irrigation water has also changed, undoubtedly increasing the uncertainty of ensuring China's food security. This study quantifies how China's food habits have influenced the requirements for arable land and water between 1981 and 2016 using data collected from multiple sources and projects the amount of arable land and irrigation water needed to ensure national food security. The results show that changes in food habit have led to increased demand for arable land and irrigation water during the past 30 years. In 1981, 124 million ha of arable land and 159 billion m(3)of irrigation water were needed for food consumption; however, these values increased to 137 million ha and 184 billion m(3), respectively in 2016. Moreover, changes in food habit have exceeded the level of agricultural technology, becoming the main reason for increase in per capita demand of arable land and water after 1996. Under the current food habits, the demand for arable land and irrigation water will increase by 14% and 13%, respectively when the expected population peak occurs (in 2032), compared to those of 2016. However, if the food habits recommended by China's nutritionists are followed in the future, more arable land and irrigation water will be needed to meet China's demand compared to the current diet patterns. This study also proposes some measures to ensure China's food security based on the presented findings. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.