Increasing incidence of thyroid cancer in the United States, 1973-2002
Increasing incidence of thyroid cancer in the United States, 1973-2002
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DOI：
10.1001/jama.295.18.2164
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发表时间：
2006-05-10
影响因子：
120.7
通讯作者：
Welch, HG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davies, L;Welch, HG
癌症发病率的增加通常被解释为疾病真实发生率的增加，但也可能反映了病理标准的变化或诊断审查的增加。甲状腺结节诊断方法的变化可能导致甲状腺癌表观发病率的增加。目的研究美国甲状腺癌发病率、组织学、大小分布和死亡率的趋势。方法回顾性队列评估甲状腺癌患者，19732002年，使用监测、流行病学、和最终结果（SEER）程序和来自国家生命统计系统的甲状腺癌死亡率数据。主要结果指标甲状腺癌发病率，组织学，大小分布，结果甲状腺癌的发病率从1973年的3.6/10万增加到2002年的8.7/10万，增加了2.4倍（95%置信区间[CI]，2.2-2.6; P . 20为趋势）。几乎全部的增加都归因于乳头状甲状腺癌发病率的增加，从2.7/10万增加到7.7/10万，增加了2.9倍（95%CI，2.6-3.2; P
Context Increasing cancer incidence is typically interpreted as an increase in the true occurrence of disease but may also reflect changing pathological criteria or increased diagnostic scrutiny. Changes in the diagnostic approach to thyroid nodules may have resulted in an increase in the apparent incidence of thyroid cancer.Objective To examine trends in thyroid cancer incidence, histology, size distribution, and mortality in the United States.Methods Retrospective cohort evaluation of patients with thyroid cancer, 19732002, using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results ( SEER) program and data on thyroid cancer mortality from the National Vital Statistics System.Main Outcome Measures Thyroid cancer incidence, histology, size distribution, and mortality.Results The incidence of thyroid cancer increased from 3.6 per 100 000 in 1973 to 8.7 per 100 000 in 2002 - a 2.4-fold increase (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2-2.6; P . 20 for trend). Virtually the entire increase is attributable to an increase in incidence of papillary thyroid cancer, which increased from 2.7 to 7.7 per 100 000 - a 2.9-fold increase ( 95% CI, 2.6-3.2; P