PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR AMERICAN PRESIDENTS - CYCLICAL MODEL
PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR AMERICAN PRESIDENTS - CYCLICAL MODEL
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DOI：
10.1086/268264
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发表时间：
1976-01-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
STIMSON, JA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
STIMSON, JA
人们发现，美国公众对总统的认可随着时间的推移呈现出一种周期性的模式。所有的总统开始任期时都很受欢迎，经历抛物线式的下降，在大约三年的时间里稳步失去民众的支持，然后在任期结束时恢复一些。有人认为，这些独特的周期反映了公众中不太知情的部分的定期期望/幻灭周期，并与四年一次的选举日程有关。抛物线曲线与实际总统批准的非凡拟合导致人们怀疑总统批准可能几乎完全独立于总统在办公室的行为，这在很大程度上是与时间相关的不可避免的力量的函数。
The approval accorded to Presidents by the American public is found to follow a cyclical pattern over time. All Presidents begin their terms with great popularity, experience parabolic declines, steadily lose popular support for about three years, and then recover some at the ends of their terms. These distinctive cycles, it is argued, reflect regular expectation/disillusionment cycles among the less well-informed segments of the public and are tied to the four-year election calendar. The extraordinary fit of parabolic curves to actual presidential approval leads to the suspicion that presidential approval may be almost wholly independent of the President's behavior in office, a function largely of inevitable forces associated with time.