CREDIBLE RESEARCH DESIGNS FOR MINIMUM WAGE STUDIES: A RESPONSE TO NEUMARK, SALAS, AND WASCHER
CREDIBLE RESEARCH DESIGNS FOR MINIMUM WAGE STUDIES: A RESPONSE TO NEUMARK, SALAS, AND WASCHER
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DOI：
10.1177/0019793917692788
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发表时间：
2017-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Zipperer, Ben
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Allegretto, Sylvia;Dube, Arindrajit;Zipperer, Ben
作者评估了Neumark，Salas和Wascher（2014）对最低工资研究的批评，发现对青少年就业的影响很小。1979年至2014年的数据与新南威尔士州的数据相矛盾;作者表明，假设美国各州平行趋势的模型所显示的失业主要反映了不同的预先存在的趋势。一个数据驱动的LASSO程序，最佳地纠正状态的趋势产生一个小的就业弹性（-0.01）。即使是一个高度稀疏的模型也排除了大量的失业效应，这与新南威尔士州声称作者丢弃了太多信息的说法相反。综合控制确实对邻近的州给予了更多的权重，这证实了区域控制的价值，并产生了-0.04的弹性。一个类似的弹性（-0.06）从一个设计比较相邻的边境县，作者表明是很好的控制。新南威尔士州的首选匹配估计混合治疗和控制单位，获得穷人的匹配，并找到最高的就业下降的相对最低工资福尔斯下降。这些发现驳斥了新南威尔士州的主要主张。
The authors assess the critique by Neumark, Salas, and Wascher (2014) of minimum wage studies that found small effects on teen employment. Data from 1979 to 2014 contradict NSW; the authors show that the disemployment suggested by a model assuming parallel trends across U.S. states mostly reflects differential pre-existing trends. A data-driven LASSO procedure that optimally corrects for state trends produces a small employment elasticity (-0.01). Even a highly sparse model rules out substantial disemployment effects, contrary to NSW's claim that the authors discard too much information. Synthetic controls do place more weight on nearby states-confirming the value of regional controls-and generate an elasticity of -0.04. A similar elasticity (-0.06) obtains from a design comparing contiguous border counties, which the authors show to be good controls. NSW's preferred matching estimates mix treatment and control units, obtain poor matches, and find the highest employment declines where the relative minimum wage falls. These findings refute NSW's key claims.