The Conjunction Fallacy: Differential Incidence as a Function of Descriptive Frames and Educational Context
The Conjunction Fallacy: Differential Incidence as a Function of Descriptive Frames and Educational Context
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合取谬误：差异发生率作为描述框架和教育背景的函数
DOI：
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Kulik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Stolarz;E. Fantino;J. Kulik
在大学生中，当问题被问到有或没有“框架描述”时，当对被判断的人一无所知时，在以更定性的格式提出的问题中，以及在学习不同科目的小组之间，对合取谬误的频率进行了评估。不同的学生群体出现这种谬误的频率有很大差异，而不同的群体对情境效应的敏感性也不同。重要的是，即使去掉了框架描述，问题的措辞也有利于逻辑方法，大约四分之一的受试者仍会出现合取谬误。实验二发现，被试对问题解决策略的描述与他们的表现在很大程度上无关。在实验3中，逻辑专业的学生在课程快结束时完成了这个任务，有相当多的学生（43%）犯了这个错误。在实验4中，即使没有框架描述，41%的学生也犯了这个谬误。
Abstract The frequency of the conjunction fallacy, in which individuals report that the conjunction of two events is more rather than less likely than one of the events alone, was assessed in college students when questions were asked with and without a “framing description,” when nothing was known about the person being judged, in questions presented in a more qualitative format, and between groups studying different subjects. The frequency of the fallacy varied sharply across student groups and groups differed in their susceptibility to contextual effects. Importantly, the conjunction fallacy occurred for about one-quarter of subjects even when the framing description was eliminated and the question worded to facilitate a logical approach. Experiment 2 found that subjects’ descriptions of their problem-solving strategies appeared largely unrelated to their performance. In Experiment 3, logic students performed the task near the end of their course; a substantial number, 43%, committed the fallacy. In Experiment 4, 41% of students committed the fallacy even without the framing description.