The latest iteration of IPCC uncertainty guidance—an author perspective
The latest iteration of IPCC uncertainty guidance—an author perspective
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IPCC不确定性指南的最新版本——作者的观点
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
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通讯作者：
Roger N. Jones
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文献类型：
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作者：
Roger N. Jones
政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）不确定性指南的最新版本比以前的版本更简单，更容易使用。然而，它的主要重点仍然是评估气候变化下的“风险”，因此最适合处理第一工作组和第二工作组部分发现的科学不确定性。我区分了温和风险和复杂风险，认为该指南最适合于评估温和风险。气候变化是一种复杂的风险，因此可以分为理想化的、可计算的和可感知的风险。虽然科学声称是客观的，但风险有一个特定的价值组成部分：在衡量得失时，计算出来的风险与管理这些风险的风险选择相竞争。IPCC负责计算风险（IPCC 2007, p22），但主要发现的交流是在相互竞争的感知风险环境中进行的。管理这一复杂环境的建议包括：将科学发现和基于风险的发现分开，分别处理两者的不确定性；强化不确定性管理的哲学基础；应用有条不紊的科学研究计划；清晰地传达相互矛盾的发现，特别是在社会科学领域；以及将多重框架应用于文献中反映的与政策相关的研究结果。
The latest iteration of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uncertainty guidance is simpler and easier to use than the previous version. However, its primary focus remains assessing “what is at risk” under climate change, thus is most suitable for dealing with the scientific uncertainties in Working Group I and part of Working Group II findings. I distinguish between tame and complex risks, arguing that the guidance is most suited to assessing tame risks. Climate change is a complex risk, and as such as can be divided into idealized, calculated and perceived risks. While science has claims to objectivity, risk has a specific value component: when measuring gain and loss, calculated risks compete with risky options to manage those risks. The IPCC is charged with calculating risk (IPCC 2007, p22) but the communication of key findings takes place in an environment of competing perceived risks. Recommendations for managing this complex environment include separating scientific and risk-based findings, treating uncertainties for each separately; strengthening the philosophical basis of uncertainty management; application of a methodical scientific research program; clearly communicating competing findings, especially in the social sciences; and application of multiple frame to policy-relevant findings as reflected in the literature.