Scientific Opinion on Rift Valley fever
Scientific Opinion on Rift Valley fever
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DOI：
10.2903/j.efsa.2013.3180
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发表时间：
2013-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Zientara, Stephan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Authie, Edith;Berg, Charlotte;Zientara, Stephan
根据对文献和世界动物卫生组织（OIE）疫情报告的全面审查，本科学意见报告说，首先，没有证据表明裂谷热在过去10年中传播到以前未受感染的国家。尽管如此，裂谷热已在毛里塔尼亚境内向北移动到沙漠地区。其次，提供了欧洲和地中海盆地南部的地图，显示了地理分布的9个潜在的主管裂谷热病毒（RVFV）载体的区域报告的存在，根据系统的文献综述。从环境和生态气候数据，预测的存在地图生成，这表明这些潜在的主管RVFV载体的欧洲和地中海盆地南部的几个地区的适用性。第三，为了评估RVFV传入南地中海盆地（以下定义为相关区域，RC）的一些指定国家的风险，特别是通过活动物和媒介的移动，定量模型的构建和模型参数推导的基础上专家知识启发（EKE）。EKE模型表明，当疫区发生流行病时，将有数百只RVFV感染动物被转移到RC。与通过受感染动物进入RC的风险相比，RVFV通过病媒移动进入RC的风险预计较小。由于缺乏关于病媒丰度的季节性和RVFV在当地病媒物种中的垂直传播的定量信息，因此无法评估地方性流行的风险。然而，根据该区域尖音库蚊的数量、牲畜密度和温度，裂谷热有可能在克罗地亚共和国沿海地区蔓延。(C)欧洲食品安全局，2013年。
Based on a comprehensive review of literature and OIE (World Animal Health Organisation) outbreak reports, this scientific opinion reports, first, that there is no evidence that Rift Valley fever (RVF) has spread to previously uninfected countries during the past 10 years. Nevertheless, RVF has moved north within Mauritania, in a desert area. Secondly, maps of Europe and the southern Mediterranean Basin are provided, displaying the geographic distribution of the reported presence of nine potentially competent Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) vectors of the region, based on a systematic literature review. From environmental and eco-climatic data, predicted presence maps were generated that suggest the suitability of several parts of Europe and the southern Mediterranean Basin for these potentially competent RVFV vectors. Thirdly, to assess the risk of introduction of RVFV into some designated countries in the southern Mediterranean Basin (hereafter defined as the region concerned, RC), especially through the movements of live animals and vectors, a quantitative model was constructed and model parameters were derived based on expert knowledge elicitation (EKE). The EKE model indicates that some hundreds of RVFV-infected animals will be moved into the RC when an epidemic in the source areas occurs. The risk of RVFV entering the RC through the movement of vectors is expected to be small in comparison with the risk of entry through infected animals. Because of a lack of quantitative information on the seasonality of vector abundance and vertical transmission of RVFV within local vector species, the risk of endemicity could not be assessed. However, based on the abundance of the vector Culex pipiens, the livestock densities and the temperature in the region, there is a potential for the occurrence of RVF spread in the coastal areas of the RC. (C) European Food Safety Authority, 2013.