Risk score for the prediction of severe obesity in pediatric craniopharyngiomas: relative to tumor origin
Risk score for the prediction of severe obesity in pediatric craniopharyngiomas: relative to tumor origin
复制标题
预测儿童颅咽管瘤严重肥胖的风险评分：相对于肿瘤起源
DOI：
10.1038/pr.2017.289
复制
发表时间：
2018-03-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Qi, Songtao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Danling;Pan, Jun;Qi, Songtao
背景：我们的目的是建立一个风险评分，以提高对儿童颅咽管瘤（PCs）严重肥胖的预测。方法：总共前瞻性纳入来自6家医院的612名连续pc。研究人员分析了404名参与者的数据。来自六家医院中的三家的参与者（n = 290）被用来制定风险评分。采用来自其他三家医院的参与者（n = 114）对开发的风险评分进行外部验证。序贯逻辑回归用于开发和验证风险评分。使用c统计量和校正图来评估建议风险评分的区分和校正。结果：重度肥胖的总体发生率为16.1%（65/404）。风险评分采用0-16分制，具有较好的判别能力，乐观修正后的c统计量为0.820。外部验证结果相似，c统计量为0.821。风险评分显示校准良好，校准图中未观察到明显的过高或过低预测。结论：这种新颖的风险评分是一种简单的工具，可以帮助临床医生评估pc患者严重肥胖的风险，从而帮助他们及时计划和启动最合适的疾病管理。
BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop a risk score to improve the prediction of severe obesity in pediatric craniopharyngiomas (PCs).METHODS: Overall, 612 consecutive PCs were prospectively enrolled from six hospitals. Data from 404 participants were analyzed. Participants from three of the six hospitals (n = 290) were used to develop a risk score. External validation of the developed risk score was conducted using the participants from the other three hospitals (n = 114). Sequential logistic regression was used to develop and validate the risk score. The c statistic and a calibration plot were used to assess the discrimination and calibration of the proposed risk score.RESULTS: The overall frequency of severe obesity was 16.1% (65/404). The risk score employed a scale of 0-16 and demonstrated good discriminative power, with an optimism-corrected c statistic of 0.820. Similar results were obtained from external validation, with a c statistic of 0.821. The risk score showed good calibration, with no apparent over-or under-prediction observed in the calibration plots.CONCLUSIONS: This novel risk score is a simple tool that can help clinicians assess the risk of severe obesity in PCs, thereby helping to plan and initiate the most appropriate disease management for these patients in time.