Information-Technology-Enabled Services and India's Growth Prospects
Information-Technology-Enabled Services and India's Growth Prospects
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信息技术支持的服务和印度的增长前景
DOI：
10.1353/btf.2006.0023
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Nirvikar Singh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. T.N.SRINIVASA;Lael S. Brainard;Susan Collins;Kanwal Rekhi;A. Saxenian;Nirvikar Singh
在印度有计划的岛屿经济发展的前三十年（1950- 1980），真实的GDP年均增长率约为3.75%。20世纪80年代，经济开放有限，改革犹豫不决。增长率加速至5.7%，这是由于财政挥霍，部分资金来自高利率的外部借款。1991年第一次海湾战争后，苏联解体，（它不仅是印度计划经济发展的典范，而且还是印度的武器供应商、易货贸易伙伴和印度在联合国安全理事会利益的支持者），以及担心被中国自1978年开放以来的快速增长甩在后面，导致印度决策者摆脱了其内向型、国家指导和控制的发展战略，并向外部竞争和投资开放经济。在国际货币基金组织和世界银行的协助下解决危机之后，决策者启动了一个仍在进行中的系统性经济改革进程。经济对改革作出了反应，并迅速从危机导致的国内生产总值增长率下降到1991-92年的1.3%。1996- 1997年，经济增长率达到百分之七点八。随后，这一比例出现波动，在2002- 2003年下降到4.0%的低点，主要是因为严重干旱导致农业产量下降，而在第二年上升到8.5%的峰值，这在很大程度上是因为农业产量的恢复（财政部，2005年，附录表1.6）。最新的数据显示，在2004-05财政年度，国内生产总值增长率估计为6.9%，
During the first three decades (1950–80) of India’s planned insular economic development, real GDP grew at an annual average rate of around 3.75 percent. The 1980s saw a limited opening of the economy and hesitant reforms. The growth rate accelerated to 5.7 percent, fueled by fiscal profligacy financed in part by external borrowing at high interest rates. A severe macroeconomic and balance-of-payments crisis in 1991 following the first Gulf War, the collapse of the Soviet Union (which was not only India’s model for planned economic development but also its arms supplier, a partner for barter trade, and a supporter of India’s interests in the Security Council of the United Nations), and the fear of being left behind by the rapid growth of China since its opening in 1978 led Indian policymakers to break away from its inward-oriented, state-directed, and controlled development strategy and open the economy to external competition and investment. After addressing the crisis with the assistance of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the policymakers launched a process of systemic economic reforms that is still in progress. The economy responded to the reforms and quickly rebounded from the crisis-induced fall in growth of GDP to 1.3 percent in 1991–92. The growth rate accelerated, peaking at 7.8 percent in 1996–97. Subsequently it has fluctuated, falling to a low of 4.0 percent in 2002–03, largely because of a severe drought-induced decline in agricultural output, and rising to a peak of 8.5 percent the very next year, in large part owing to the recovery of agricultural output (MOF 2005, appendix table 1.6). The latest available data show that in the fiscal year of 2004–05, GDP growth was estimated at 6.9 percent,