Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome caused by Seoul hantavirus
Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome caused by Seoul hantavirus
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首尔汉坦病毒引起的肾综合征出血热传播动力学的内在和外在驱动因素
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0007757
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Tian, Huaiyu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Yidan;Cazelles, Bernard;Tian, Huaiyu
汉城汉坦病毒（SEOV）感染在欧洲和亚洲很常见，在人群中发现了相当高的血清患病率。然而，报告的肾综合征出血热（HFRS）病例相对较少。全面的流行病学数据对于研究这种被低估的疾病的模式和驱动因素是必要的。在此，我们分析了葫芦岛市1998 - 2015年疾病暴发的啮齿动物宿主监测和血清阳性率数据，葫芦岛市是中国HFRS的典型sev流行区之一。我们的数学模型量化了HFRS传播的驱动因素，并估计了流行病学参数。我们的研究提供了内在和外在因素、人鼠界面和疾病动力学之间的生态过程的理解。首尔汉坦病毒（SEOV）最近引起了肾综合征出血热（HFRS）地域范围扩大的担忧。在世界范围内，人类感染的sev被严重低估，由于缺乏实地数据和经验验证的模型，sev相关的HFRS的流行动态知之甚少。在这里，我们使用数学模型来检验中国seov流行地区动物（挪威大鼠）向人类传播疾病的内在和外在驱动因素。我们发现灭鼠计划和疫苗接种运动，但低于当地消除阈值，可以减少HFRS流行的幅度，但不能改变其季节性。模型表明，城市环境下鼠类种群动态对气候变化不敏感，而相对湿度对传播的季节性有负面影响。我们的研究有助于更好地理解sev相关HFRS的流行病学，揭示了啮齿动物种群动态与传播率之间的不同步，并确定了sev季节性的潜在驱动因素。
Author summary Seoul hantavirus (SEOV) infections are common in Europe and Asia where a considerably high seroprevalence among the population is found. However, only relatively few hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) cases are reported. Comprehensive epidemiological data is necessary to study the patterns and drivers of this underestimated disease. Here, we analyzed rodent host surveillance and seroprevalence data from 1998 to 2015 for disease outbreaks in Huludao City, one of the typical SEOV-endemic areas for HFRS in China. Our mathematical models quantified the drivers on HFRS transmission and estimated the epidemiological parameters. Our study provides an understanding of its ecological process between intrinsic and extrinsic factors, human-rodent interface and disease dynamics.Seoul hantavirus (SEOV) has recently raised concern by causing geographic range expansion of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). SEOV infections in humans are significantly underestimated worldwide and epidemic dynamics of SEOV-related HFRS are poorly understood because of a lack of field data and empirically validated models. Here, we use mathematical models to examine both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of disease transmission from animal (the Norway rat) to humans in a SEOV-endemic area in China. We found that rat eradication schemes and vaccination campaigns, but below the local elimination threshold, could diminish the amplitude of the HFRS epidemic but did not modify its seasonality. Models demonstrate population dynamics of the rodent host were insensitive to climate variations in urban settings, while relative humidity had a negative effect on the seasonality in transmission. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of SEOV-related HFRS, demonstrates asynchronies between rodent population dynamics and transmission rate, and identifies potential drivers of the SEOV seasonality.