Economic Reforms and evolution of producer prices in Kenya: an ARCH-M approach
Economic Reforms and evolution of producer prices in Kenya: an ARCH-M approach
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肯尼亚的经济改革和生产者价格的演变：ARCH-M 方法
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-8268.2003.00074.x
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
H. Moll
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. M. Karanja;A. Kuyvenhoven;H. Moll
过去二十年来，撒哈拉以南非洲的大多数国家一直在实行经济自由化，特别是农产品市场自由化。改革的设想是改善农业部门的贸易条件和生产者获得的价格，以此作为刺激生产和增长的手段。本文分析了市场改革对肯尼亚生产者价格演变和波动的影响。应用自回归条件异方差均值（ARCH-M）回归模型分析了15年的月度生产者价格。1985- 1991年和1992- 1999年分别代表改革前和改革时期。牛奶和玉米被用来代表食品，而咖啡和茶则代表非食品商品贸易。在改革期间，咖啡、茶叶和玉米的真实的生产者价格大幅度下降，而牛奶价格上升。研究结果还表明，市场改革一般与商品价格波动较大有关，尽管商品之间存在差异。这些价格动态可归因于市场改革的顺序问题和间歇性，以及私营部门对农产品市场的参与有限。农业商品价格的国际趋势，特别是贸易产品的国际趋势，也发挥了重要作用。重点阐述了在肯尼亚自由化的市场环境中以及在撒哈拉以南非洲更广泛的背景下对小农农业发展的政策影响。
For the last two decades, most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have been liberalizing their economies, and agricultural markets in particular. The reforms were envisaged to improve the agricultural sector terms of trade and prices received by producers as a means of stimulating production and growth. This paper analyses the effects of market reforms on the evolution and volatility of producer prices in Kenya. An autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic in mean (ARCH-M) regression model is applied to analyse monthly producer prices for a 15-year period. The periods 1985-91 and 1992-99 represent the pre-reform and reform periods, respectively. Milk and maize are used to represent food items while coffee and tea represent traded non-food commodities. Real producer prices for coffee, tea and maize significantly declined during the reform period while milk prices increased. Results also indicate that market reforms were generally associated with higher volatility of commodity prices, although there are inter-commodity differences. These price developments could be attributed to sequencing problems and the intermittent nature of market reforms as well as limited private sector participation in agricultural markets. International trends in agricultural commodity prices are also shown to have played a major role, especially for traded products. Policy implications with regard to smallholder agricultural development in a liberalized market environment in Kenya and in the wider context of sub-Saharan Africa are highlighted.