Thermal structure and megathrust seismogenic potential of the Makran subduction zone

Thermal structure and megathrust seismogenic potential of the Makran subduction zone
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莫克兰俯冲带的热结构和巨型逆冲孕震潜力

DOI:
10.1002/grl.50374
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发表时间:
2013
影响因子:
5.2
通讯作者:
Smith G
Smith G
中科院分区:
地球科学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Smith G

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Makran俯冲带在1945年经历了一次海啸Mw8.1级地震,最近,较小的地震也表明大逆冲断层上的地震活动;然而,其历史记录有限,潜在的危险是谜。我们开发了俯冲带的二维热模型。结果是双重的:(1)进入板块上的厚沉积物覆盖层导致变形前缘处的高(~150°)板块边界温度,使巨型逆冲断层在浅深度处具有潜在的孕震性,(2)俯冲板块的浅倾角导致潜在的孕震区较宽(高达~350 km)。结合这些结果与沿着走向破裂的情况表明,Mw8.7-9.2地震是可能在向海的Makran俯冲带。这些结果具有重要的地震和海啸灾害影响,特别是对巴基斯坦,伊朗,阿曼和印度的相邻海岸线,因为Makran以前没有被认为是可能发生Mw> 9地震的候选者。
The Makran subduction zone experienced a tsunamigenic Mw8.1 earthquake in 1945 and recent, smaller earthquakes also suggest seismicity on the megathrust; however, its historical record is limited and hazard potential enigmatic. We have developed a 2‐D thermal model of the subduction zone. The results are twofold: (1) The thick sediment cover on the incoming plate leads to high (~150°) plate boundary temperatures at the deformation front making the megathrust potentially seismogenic to a shallow depth, and (2) the shallow dip of the subducting plate leads to a wide potential seismogenic zone (up to ~350 km). Combining these results with along strike rupture scenarios indicates that Mw8.7–9.2 earthquakes are possible in the seaward Makran subduction zone. These results have important earthquake and tsunami hazard implications, particularly for the adjacent coastlines of Pakistan, Iran, Oman, and India, as the Makran has not been previously considered a likely candidate for a Mw> 9 earthquake.
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