Econometrics of valuing income contingent student loans using administrative data: groups of English students
Econometrics of valuing income contingent student loans using administrative data: groups of English students
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使用行政数据评估收入或学生贷款的计量经济学：英国学生群体
DOI：
10.1920/wp.ifs.2019.0419
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Laura van der Erve
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Britton;N. Shephard;Laura van der Erve
收入或有贷款是资助高等教育的越来越受欢迎的工具。这些贷款具有理想的特点，但从长远来看，政府整体冲销也可能很高。后一个事实已得到充分记录，但人们对这些冲销如何因借款人分组而异的情况知之甚少。量化这一点并了解它如何受到高等教育系统设计的影响非常重要。估算具有挑战性，因为它需要对毕业生未来多年的收入进行预测。在本文中，我们使用英国学生贷款公司的记录，其中包含与官方税务记录相关的借款、课程和机构信息，可提供毕业后长达 11 年的收入。我们创新的计量经济学方法融合了毕业生自离开大学以来的行政税务记录和毕业生调查数据，使我们能够推断贷款合同剩余部分的生命周期。我们的方法可能适用于使用不完整管理数据的各种环境。我们首次在主体和机构层面上估算了英国通过未偿贷款获得的政府补贴，发现两者存在相当大的异质性。由于过去二十年来对高等教育的重大改革，英国是一个有趣的案例研究。我们表明，这些改革对政府高等教育支出的分配产生了重大影响。
Income contingent loans are an increasingly popular tool for funding higher education. These loans have desirable features, but also potentially high overall government write-offs in the long run. This latter fact has been well documented, but little is known about how those write-offs vary by subgroups of borrowers. It is important to quantify this and also to understand how it is affected by the design of the higher education system. Estimation is challenging because it requires the projection of earnings of graduates many years into the future. In this paper, we use English Student Loan Company records with information on borrowing, course, and institution linked to offcial tax records that give earnings for up to 11 years after graduation. Our innovative econometric methods fuse administrative tax records of graduates since they left university with graduate survey data to allow us to extrapolate through the life cycle for the remainder of the loan contract. Our methodology is potentially applicable in a wide range of settings that uses incomplete administrative data. We estimate government subsidies through unpaid loans in England at the subject and institution level for the fi rst time, fi nding considerable heterogeneity in both. England is an interesting case study due to the signi cant reforms to higher education over the past twenty years. We show that these reforms have had strong implications for the distribution of government spending on higher education.