Agricultural Adaptation to a Changing Climate: Economic and Environmental Implications Vary by U.S. Region
Agricultural Adaptation to a Changing Climate: Economic and Environmental Implications Vary by U.S. Region
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农业适应气候变化：经济和环境影响因美国地区而异
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2112045
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kelly A. Day
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Malcolm;E. Marshall;M. Aillery;P. Heisey;M. Livingston;Kelly A. Day
全球气候模型预测，随着时间的推移，全世界的平均气温会上升，对当地的气温和降水模式产生重大影响。这种变化对粮食供应、农民生计和农村社区构成风险的程度部分取决于这种变化的方向、幅度和速度，但同样重要的是，农业部门适应不断变化的产量和生产力模式、生产成本和资源可用性的能力。研究结果表明，虽然影响对不确定的气候预测高度敏感，但农民有相当大的灵活性，可以通过调整作物、轮作和生产方式来适应当地天气、资源条件和价格信号的变化。这种利用现有作物生产技术的适应措施可以部分减轻气候变化对国家农产品市场的影响。然而，生产的适应性重新分配可能对区域土地使用和环境质量产生重大影响。
Global climate models predict increases over time in average temperature worldwide, with significant impacts on local patterns of temperature and precipitation. The extent to which such changes present a risk to food supplies, farmer livelihoods, and rural communities depends in part on the direction, magnitude, and rate of such changes, but equally importantly on the ability of the agricultural sector to adapt to changing patterns of yield and productivity, production cost, and resource availability. Study findings suggest that, while impacts are highly sensitive to uncertain climate projections, farmers have considerable flexibility to adapt to changes in local weather, resource conditions, and price signals by adjusting crops, rotations, and production practices. Such adaptation, using existing crop production technologies, can partially mitigate the impacts of climate change on national agricultural markets. Adaptive redistribution of production, however, may have significant implications for both regional land use and environmental quality.