China's Strategic Misjudgement on Myanmar
China's Strategic Misjudgement on Myanmar
复制标题
中国对缅甸的战略误判
DOI：
10.1177/186810341203100105
复制
发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Yun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yun
孙云认为，中国2011年在缅甸问题上的政策失败，根源于选举后的几次战略误判。2011年3月吴登盛总统就职后，中缅关系最初因建立“全面战略合作伙伴关系”而得到提升，中国寻求回报，以换取缅甸在地区多边论坛上支持中国的立场。然而，8月份以来的一系列事件挫败了中国的抱负，包括缅甸暂停密松大坝建设，以及缅甸与西方关系的迅速改善。几个战略误判导致了中国的误判，包括对缅甸政府的民主势头、美缅接触以及中国在缅甸的政治和经济影响力的误判。中国之前对缅甸的定义是中国“为数不多的忠实朋友”之一，其战略蓝图的基础已经从根本上动摇，中国正在重新调整其对未来政策的预期。
Yun Sun argues that China's policy failures on Myanmar in 2011 are rooted in several strategic post-election misjudgements. Following President Thein Sein's inauguration in March 2011, the Sino–Myanmar relationship was initially boosted by the establishment of a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership,” and China sought reciprocation for its long-time diplomatic support in the form of Myanmar's endorsement of China's positions on regional multilateral forums. A series of events since August have frustrated China's aspirations, however, including Myanmar's suspension of the Myitsone dam and the rapid improvement of its relationship with the West. Several strategic misjudgements contributed to China's miscalculations, including on the democratic momentum of the Myanmar government, on the U.S. –Myanmar engagement and on China's political and economic influence in the country. China's previous definition of Myanmar as one of China's “few loyal friends” and the foundation of its strategic blueprint has been fundamentally shaken, and China is recalibrating its expectations regarding future policies.