Probabilistic concepts in intermediate-complexity climate models: A snapshot attractor picture
Probabilistic concepts in intermediate-complexity climate models: A snapshot attractor picture
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中等复杂性气候模型中的概率概念：快照吸引子图片
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-15-0353.1
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
T. Tél
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Herein;János Márfy;G. Drótos;T. Tél
由单一初始条件得到的时间序列不足以量化气候模式中的内部变率，因此，人们无法在此基础上进行有意义的气候预测。作者认为，由初始条件不同的轨迹集合得到的自然分布，的快照吸引子对应于一个特定的强迫情景，应确定，以量化内部的变化，并在未来的系统的任何瞬时状态的特征。此外，作为一个简单的措施的内部变化的任何特定变量的模型，作者建议使用其瞬时集合标准差。这些观点是用中等复杂度的气候模型Planet Simulator来说明的，该模型由40个成员组成的集合，由CO2情景强迫。特别是，平稳的时间依赖性的任何合奏平均示出，以提供一个更清晰的指示r…
AbstractA time series resulting from a single initial condition is shown to be insufficient for quantifying the internal variability in a climate model, and thus one is unable to make meaningful climate projections based on it. The authors argue that the natural distribution, obtained from an ensemble of trajectories differing solely in their initial conditions, of the snapshot attractor corresponding to a particular forcing scenario should be determined in order to quantify internal variability and to characterize any instantaneous state of the system in the future. Furthermore, as a simple measure of internal variability of any particular variable of the model, the authors suggest using its instantaneous ensemble standard deviation. These points are illustrated with the intermediate-complexity climate model Planet Simulator forced by a CO2 scenario, with a 40-member ensemble. In particular, the leveling off of the time dependence of any ensemble average is shown to provide a much clearer indication of r...
影响因子：
1.2
作者：
Fraedrich, K;Jansen, H;Lunkeit, F
通讯作者：
Lunkeit, F