Variations of China's emission estimates: response to uncertainties in energy statistics
Variations of China's emission estimates: response to uncertainties in energy statistics
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-17-1227-2017
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发表时间：
2017-01-25
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Zheng, Bo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hong, Chaopeng;Zhang, Qiang;Zheng, Bo
中国能源统计的准确性备受关注，因为它极大地增加了全球排放量估算的不确定性。本研究试图增进对中国能源统计不确定性的理解，并评估其对1990-2013年期间中国排放的影响。我们采用中国多分辨率排放清单（MEIC）模型，根据不同的官方能源统计数据集，使用相同的排放因子来计算中国的排放量。我们发现，从2004年到2012年，中国能源消费的明显不确定性（最大差异）有所增加，2011年达到最大值646 Mtce（百万吨煤当量），而煤炭在这些不确定性中占主导地位。经过三次经济普查，全国与省级能源统计数据的差异有所缩小，2013年不确定性出现收敛。各省能源统计计算的排放量普遍高于全国能源统计计算的排放量，2012年能源不确定性带来的表观不确定性比（最大差异与平均值的比值）分别为30.0、16.4、7.7、 SO2、NOx、VOC、PM2.5 和 CO2 排放量分别为 9.2% 和 15.6%。由于工业煤炭燃烧的贡献较大，二氧化硫排放对能源不确定性最为敏感。计算的排放趋势也受到能源不确定性的影响很大——从1996年到2012年，根据省级能源统计，CO2和NOx排放量分别增加了191%和197%，但根据原国家能源统计数据，仅增加了145%和139%。 SO2 和 NOx 等能源引起的排放不确定性与之前研究估计的排放总不确定性相当，表明能源消耗的变化可能是中国排放不确定性的重要来源。
The accuracy of China's energy statistics is of great concern because it contributes greatly to the uncertainties in estimates of global emissions. This study attempts to improve the understanding of uncertainties in China's energy statistics and evaluate their impacts on China's emissions during the period of 1990-2013. We employed the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) model to calculate China's emissions based on different official data sets of energy statistics using the same emission factors. We found that the apparent uncertainties (maximum discrepancy) in China's energy consumption increased from 2004 to 2012, reaching a maximum of 646 Mtce (million tons of coal equivalent) in 2011 and that coal dominated these uncertainties. The discrepancies between the national and provincial energy statistics were reduced after the three economic censuses conducted during this period, and converging uncertainties were found in 2013. The emissions calculated from the provincial energy statistics are generally higher than those calculated from the national energy statistics, and the apparent uncertainty ratio (the ratio of the maximum discrepancy to the mean value) owing to energy uncertainties in 2012 took values of 30.0, 16.4, 7.7, 9.2 and 15.6 %, for SO2, NOx, VOC, PM2.5 and CO2 emissions, respectively. SO2 emissions are most sensitive to energy uncertainties because of the high contributions from industrial coal combustion. The calculated emission trends are also greatly affected by energy uncertainties - from 1996 to 2012, CO2 and NOx emissions, respectively, increased by 191 and 197% according to the provincial energy statistics but by only 145 and 139% as determined from the original national energy statistics. The energy-induced emission uncertainties for some species such as SO2 and NOx are comparable to total uncertainties of emissions as estimated by previous studies, indicating variations in energy consumption could be an important source of China's emission uncertainties.