The expansion of short rotation forestry: characterization of determinants with an agent‐based land use model
The expansion of short rotation forestry: characterization of determinants with an agent‐based land use model
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DOI：
10.1111/gcbb.12400
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发表时间：
2017-06
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jule Schulze;E. Gawel;Henning Nolzen;Hanna Weise;K. Frank
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作者：
Jule Schulze;E. Gawel;Henning Nolzen;Hanna Weise;K. Frank
木材是一种有限的资源，面临着不断增长的全球需求，这不仅仅是因为政治上鼓励使用生物能源。应对挑战以可持续地满足日益增长的木材需求的一种方法是短轮伐期林业。然而，战略成果框架只是在逐步演变，人们并不完全了解哪些因素阻碍了其扩展。这项研究提供了理论上的见解，经济和环境的决定因素SRF扩展及其相互作用。这一评估需要在明确的投资评估基础上纳入农民的决策。因此，我们使用基于代理的模型来描述利润最大化的农民面临SRF，传统的一年生农作物的种植和放弃耕作（休耕）之间的选择的决策。土地使用决策受到一般经济决定因素的影响，如木材和一年生作物的市场价格，以及取决于地点的决定因素，如环境地点质量。我们发现，为基于SRF的产品和一年生作物支付费用的意愿对SRF在景观中的覆盖率影响最大。在大多数情况下，将在生产率低的地点建立战略成果框架。然而，支付一年生作物的意愿下降将导致将SRF种植园重新分配到生产力较高的地点。此外，我们的模型结果表明，加工厂的距离对农民的决策的影响强烈依赖于一般的经济决定因素和给定的空间结构的基础自然景观。通过分析SRF扩展的不同决定因素的相对重要性，本研究深入探讨了使用SRF可持续满足不断增长的木材需求的方法。此外，这些见解被视为设计有效的政府干预措施以促进战略成果框架的出发点。
Wood is a limited resource which is exposed to a continuously growing global demand not least because of a politically fostered bioenergy use. One approach to master the challenge to sustainably meet this increasing wood demand is short rotation forestry (SRF). However, SRF is only gradually evolving and it is not fully understood which determinants hamper its expansion. This study provides theoretical insights into economic and environmental determinants of an SRF expansion and their interplay. This assessment requires the incorporation of farmers' decision‐making based on an explicit investment appraisal. Therefore, we use an agent‐based model to depict the decision‐making of profit‐maximizing farmers facing the choice between SRF, the cultivation of conventional annual agricultural crops and abstaining from cultivation (fallow land). The land use decisions are influenced by general economic determinants, such as market prices for wood and annual crops, and by site‐dependent determinants, such as the environmental site quality. We found that the willingness to pay for SRF‐based products and for annual crops most strongly influences the coverage of SRF in the landscape. SRF will in most cases be established on sites with low productivity. However, a decrease in the willingness to pay for annual crops will lead to a reallocation of SRF plantations to sites with higher productivity. Furthermore, our model results indicate that the impact of the distance to processing plants on farmers' decisions strongly depends on general economic determinants and the given spatial structure of the underlying natural landscape. Analysing the relative importance of different determinants of an SRF expansion, this study gives insights into the approach of using SRF to sustainably meet the growing wood demand. Moreover, these insights are taken as a starting point for the design of effective government interventions to promote SRF.