INFERENCE FROM A DETERMINISTIC POPULATION-DYNAMICS MODEL FOR BOWHEAD WHALES
INFERENCE FROM A DETERMINISTIC POPULATION-DYNAMICS MODEL FOR BOWHEAD WHALES
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DOI：
10.2307/2291048
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发表时间：
1995-06-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
ZEH, JE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
RAFTERY, AE;GIVENS, GH;ZEH, JE
我们考虑了由确定性种群动力学模型连接的不同信息源的关于兴趣量的推断问题。我们的方法包括将所有可用信息转换为所有模型输入和输出的联合预模型分布，然后将其限制到模型定义的子流形中以获得联合后模型分布。将其边缘化会产生关于感兴趣数量的推断，这取决于模型，可以是模型输入和模型输出的函数。或两者兼而有之。通过重要性抽样和Rubin的SIR算法得到后模型分布的样本。该框架包括一种特殊情况，即关于输出的预模型信息由带有误差的测量组成；这可以简化为标准贝叶斯推理。结果以模型后分布样本的形式出现，因此可以使用全方位的探索性数据分析技术进行检查。发展了比较竞争种群动态模型的方法。基于贝叶斯因子思想的推广。一个桶。国际捕鲸委员会（IWC）在对弓头鲸（Balaena mysticetus）做出决定时使用的数量是替代产量（RY）。关于该物种的信息主要有三种类型：最近的人口普查信息。历史捕捞记录。还有关于出生率和死亡率的证据。这些结合使用莱斯利矩阵种群动态模型的特殊情况。我们的方法产生了关于RY的完整推断，也揭示了其他。有时是有争议的。有关科学兴趣的问题。这些想法也适用于其他科学和政策制定领域的许多模拟模型。从StatLib中可以获得实现这些方法的软件。
We consider the problem of inference about a quantity of interest given different sources of information linked by a deterministic population dynamics model. Our approach consists of translating all the available information into a joint premodel distribution on all the model inputs and outputs and then restricting this to the submanifold defined by the model to obtain the joint postmodel distribution. Marginalizing this yields inference, conditional on the model, about quantities of interest, which can be functions of model inputs, model outputs. or both. Samples from the postmodel distribution are obtained by importance sampling and Rubin's SIR algorithm. The framework includes as a special case the situation where the pre-model information about the outputs consists of measurements with error; this reduces to standard Bayesian inference. The results are in the form of a sample from the postmodel distribution and so can be examined using the full range of exploratory data analysis techniques. Methods for comparing competing population dynamics models are developed. based on a generalization of the Bayes factor idea. A keg. quantity used by the International Whaling Commission (IWC) in making decisions about bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, is the replacement yield, RY. Information about the species is of three main types: recent census information. historical catch records. and evidence about birth and death rates. These are combined using a special case of the Leslie matrix population dynamics model. Our method yields full inference about RY and also sheds light on other. sometimes controversial. questions of scientific interest. These ideas are also applicable to many simulation models in other areas of science and policy making. Software to implement these methods is available from StatLib.