Anticipatory Learning for Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience
Anticipatory Learning for Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience
复制标题
气候变化适应和复原力的预期学习
DOI：
10.5751/es-03335-150211
复制
发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Katie Dietrich
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Tschakert;Katie Dietrich
本文件是对关于学习，特别是作为气候变化背景下适应和复原力的关键要素的前瞻性(预测性)学习的作用的新出现的辩论的方法论贡献。首先，我们描述了两大挑战：将适应理解为一个过程，认识到现有学习工具的不足，特别侧重于高度贫困的背景和复杂的生计--脆弱性风险。然后，文章从动态系统的角度考察了学习过程，比较了复原力思维和行动研究/学习(AR/AL)的理论方面和概念上的进展。特别关注学习循环(周期)、批判性反思、学习空间和力量。最后，我们概述了一个方法论框架，以促进迭代学习过程和实践中的适应性决策。我们强调记忆、监测变革的关键驱动因素、情景规划和衡量预期能力是关键要素。我们的目标是在非洲气候不确定和发展挑战的交汇处确定前瞻性学习进程的机会和障碍，总体目标是加强适应和有弹性的谋生途径，而不是在震惊中学习。
This paper is a methodological contribution to emerging debates on the role of learning, particularly forward-looking (anticipatory) learning, as a key element for adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. First, we describe two major challenges: understanding adaptation as a process and recognizing the inadequacy of existing learning tools, with a specific focus on high poverty contexts and complex livelihood-vulnerability risks. Then, the article examines learning processes from a dynamic systems perspective, comparing theoretical aspects and conceptual advances in resilience thinking and action research/learning (AR/AL). Particular attention is paid to learning loops (cycles), critical reflection, spaces for learning, and power. Finally, we outline a methodological framework to facilitate iterative learning processes and adaptive decision making in practice. We stress memory, monitoring of key drivers of change, scenario planning, and measuring anticipatory capacity as crucial ingredients. Our aim is to identify opportunities and obstacles for forward-looking learning processes at the intersection of climatic uncertainty and development challenges in Africa, with the overarching objective to enhance adaptation and resilient livelihood pathways, rather than learning by shock.