Book Review: The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve: A History
Book Review: The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve: A History
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书评：美联储的货币政策：历史
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发表时间：
2011
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通讯作者：
William C. Perkins
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作者：
William C. Perkins
本书是剑桥大学出版社“宏观经济学研究”系列的一部分，该系列是宏观经济学家和经济历史学家感兴趣的书籍合集。作者罗伯特·赫泽尔对该系列的贡献是对美联储货币政策的回顾和分析。罗伯特·赫泽尔 (Robert Hetzel) 是里士满联邦储备银行研究部的高级经济学家和政策顾问。他拥有博士学位。来自芝加哥大学，是著名货币学家、诺贝尔奖获得者米尔顿·弗里德曼的学生。 Hetzel 博士对美国中央银行的研究具有学术性和全面性，尽管书中的大部分内容都与 1951 年美联储和美国财政部达成协议之后的几年有关。该协议免除了美联储固定国债利率的义务。该协议签署后直至 20 世纪 50 年代末，威廉·麦切斯尼·马丁领导的美联储仅进行国库券交易，并遵循所谓的“逆风而行”政策。在赫泽尔的描述中，马丁成为 20 世纪 50 年代美联储货币政策制定的真正英雄。这些年来，马丁主席非常认真地控制通货膨胀，以至于他指示美联储在商业周期的早期扩张阶段实施货币刹车。在描述这些年来美联储的角色时，马丁喜欢说他的工作就是“在聚会变得顺利的时候拿走潘趣酒碗”。美国从二战中崛起成为世界领先经济体，这一事实使马丁的工作变得更加轻松。事实上，20世纪50年代是美国经济的黄金时代。在此期间经济增长，通货膨胀率温和。仅因三次相对温和的衰退而损害了增长记录。然而，在 20 世纪 60 年代，肯尼迪·约翰逊政府将缩小实际 GDP 与潜在 GDP 之间的差距作为首要任务。保罗·萨缪尔森和罗伯特·索洛认为，美国政策制定者可以用更高的通胀率来换取更低的失业率。这为1964年的减税奠定了基础。美国经济增速加快，失业率下降，但到了20世纪60年代末，通胀压力开始增大。在约翰逊政府后期，大多数经济学家认为增税是必要的。但对约翰逊来说，增税的代价是轻松赚钱。约翰逊签署 1968 年附加税后，当年货币政策保持扩张性，而通货膨胀率则升至 5%。 1969 年，美联储收紧了货币政策，但马丁在国会作证时表示，“我们维持克制的能力和意愿已经出现了信誉差距”。赫泽尔认为，马丁对通胀“预期”特征的担忧预示着沃尔克-格林斯潘在美联储的岁月。 1970 年，尼克松总统任命阿瑟·伯恩斯 (Arthur Burns) 接替马丁在美联储任职。经过几年赫伯特·斯坦称为“渐进主义”的适度紧缩的财政和货币政策后，尼克松政府采取了工资和价格控制，美联储转向宽松的货币政策。伯恩斯的八年以及随后在威廉·米勒 (G.William Miller) 领导下的很短时期被赫泽尔称为“走走停停”的货币政策年代。在此期间，美联储未能成功刺激经济，也未能成功控制通胀。罗伯特·赫泽尔 (Robert Hetzel) 将这一时期称为美联储“失去的十年”。在此期间，通胀预期失去了支撑。保罗·沃尔克 (Paul Volcker) 接替了威廉·米勒 (G. William Miller)，沃尔克成为 20 世纪 70 年代末和 80 年代初的政策制定明星，沃尔克联储采用专注于控制货币总量的坚决货币政策降低了通货膨胀。沃尔克政策取得了成功，但也给经济带来了巨大损失。利率达到内战以来的最高水平，随后出现了严重的经济衰退。然而，当经济衰退于 1983 年结束时，美国经济连续多年扩张，通胀率温和。沃尔克的继任者艾伦·格林斯潘成功应对了1987年的股市崩盘。经济持续扩张，直到1991年出现短暂衰退。经济反弹后，格林斯潘联储采取先发制人的行动，遏制初期的通货膨胀。例如，在 20 世纪 90 年代中期，当通货膨胀相当温和时，美联储提高了联邦基金利率，以消除经济中的需求。
This book is part of the “studies in macroeconomics” series by Cambridge University Press, a collection of titles that are of interest to macroeconomists and economic historians. Author Robert Hetzel’s contribution to the series is a review and analysis of the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Robert Hetzel is Senior Economist and Policy Advisor in the Research Department of The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago and was a student of leading monetarist and Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman. Dr. Hetzel’s study of the U.S. central bank is scholarly and comprehensive although most of the book is concerned with the years after the 1951 Accord between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury. The Accord released the Federal Reserve from the obligation of pegging interest rates of Treasury securities. After the Accord until the end of the 1950s, the Fed, led byWilliamMcChesneyMartin traded in Treasury bills only and followed what has been called a “lean against the wind” policy. Martin emerges as the real hero of the Federal Reserve monetary policy making in the decade of the 1950s in Hetzel’s account. During these years, Chairman Martin was so serious about keeping the lid on inflation that he would direct the Fed to apply the monetary brakes during the early expansionary phase of the business cycle. To describe the role of the Fed during these years Martin liked to say his job entailed “taking away the punch bowl just when the party was getting good.” Martin’s job was made easier by the fact that the United States emerged from World War II as the leading economy in the world. Indeed, the decade of the 1950s was a golden age for the U.S. economy. The economy grew during this time with only modest inflation. The growth record was marred only by three relatively mild recessions. In the decade of the 1960s, however, the KennedyJohnson administration put a priority on closing the gap between actual and potential GDP. Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow argued that U.S. policymakers could trade a higher inflation rate for a lower unemployment rate. This set the stage for the tax cut of 1964. The U.S. economy’s growth rate accelerated and the unemployment rate fell, but by the end of the 1960s, inflationary pressures began to build. In the latter part of the Johnson administration most economists argued that a tax increase was necessary. But the price of a tax increase for Johnson was easy money. After Johnson signed the Tax Surcharge of 1968, monetary policy remained expansionary through that year while the inflation rate increased to five percent. In 1969 the Fed tightened monetary policy, but Martin testified before Congress that “a credibility gap has developed over our capacity and willingness to maintain restraint.” According to Hetzel, Martin’s concern with the “expectational” character of inflation presaged the Volcker-Greenspan years at the Fed. In 1970, President Nixon appointed Arthur Burns to succeed Martin at the Fed. After several years of moderately tight fiscal and monetary policy Hebert Stein called “gradualism,” the Nixon Administration adopted wage and price controls and the Federal Reserve moved toward an easy money policy. The eight Burns years and the very short period that followed under the leadership of G.William Miller is referred to as the years of “stop and go” monetary policy by Hetzel. During this period the Fed was not successful in stimulating the economy nor in bringing inflation under control. Robert Hetzel calls this period as the Fed’s “lost decade.” During this time, inflationary expectations lost their anchor. Paul Volcker succeeded G. William Miller and Volcker emerges as the policymaking star of the late 1970s and early 1980s as the Volcker Fed brought inflation down using a resolute monetary policy that focused on the control of monetary aggregates. The Volcker policy succeeded but at a huge cost to the economy. Interest rates reached their highest level since the Civil War and a major recession ensued. When the recession ended in 1983, however, the U.S. economy expanded for many years with only moderate inflation. Alan Greenspan, Mr. Volcker’s successor successfully dealt with the stock market crash of 1987. The economy continued to expand until a short recession occurred in 1991. After the economy rebounded, the Greenspan Fed took preemptive action to stem inflation in its incipiency. For example, in the mid-1990s when inflation was quite moderate, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to take demand out of the economy in anticipation of