Using dual capture/recapture studies to estimate the population size of persons who inject drugs (PWID) in the city of Hai Phong, Vietnam
Using dual capture/recapture studies to estimate the population size of persons who inject drugs (PWID) in the city of Hai Phong, Vietnam
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DOI：
10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2017.11.033
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发表时间：
2018-04-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Nagot, Nicolas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Des Jarlais, Don;Pham Minh Khue;Nagot, Nicolas
背景：对关键人口数量的准确估计对于分配预防艾滋病毒感染的资源至关重要。我们进行了两项捕获/再捕获研究，以估计越南海防目前的PWID人数。方法：2014年受访者驱动的抽样调查(RDS)作为一项捕获，2016年在吸毒“热点”分发打火机作为另一项捕获。2016年使用RDS进行的一项调查是在分发较轻的垃圾后一周进行的，这两次调查都是对这两次捕获的“重新捕获”。在两次调查中重新捕获的参与者被电脑指纹识别器识别。从打火机分布中重新捕获的参与者被要求展示他们的打火机。结果：1385名参与者包括在“重新捕获”调查中。他们中94%是男性，年龄中值为39岁。全部(100%)吸食海洛因，HIV感染率为30%。在2014年的调查中，603名参与者中有144人，在600名接受打火机的残疾人中，有152人在2016年的调查中被重新捕获。在对警方打击毒品使用热点和进行敏感性分析进行调整后，我们对较轻的重新捕获的人口数量的最佳估计为4617人(95%CI：4090-5143)，而我们从2014年调查重新捕获的最佳估计为5220人(95%CI：4568-5872)。综合最佳估计，海防的白纹伊蚊种群数量为5000只，范围为4000-6000只。结论：捕获/重新捕获研究得出了一致的估计。在计划中的RDS调查中增加较轻的/令牌分布可能为估计PWID人口数量提供一种廉价的方法。对估计数字的分析应包括有关当地毒品情况的背景信息。
Background: Good estimates of key population sizes are critical for appropriating resources to prevent HIV infection. We conducted two capture/recapture studies to estimate the number of PWID currently in Hai Phong, Vietnam.Methods: A 2014 respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey served as one capture, and distribution of cigarette lighters at drug use "hotspots" in 2016 served as another "capture." A 2016 survey using RDS, conducted 1 week after lighter distribution, served as "recapture" for both captures. Recaptured participants in the two surveys were identified with a computerized fingerprint reader. Recaptured participants from the lighter distribution were asked to show their lighters.Results: 1385 participants were included in the "recapture" survey. They were 94% male and had a median age of 39. All (100%) injected heroin, and HIV prevalence was 30%. 144 of the 603 participants in the 2014 survey and 152 of the 600 PWID who had received lighters were "recaptured" in the 2016 survey. After adjusting for police suppression of drug use hotspots and conducting sensitivity analyses, our best estimate of the population size from the lighter recapture was 4617 (95% CI: 4090-5143), and our best estimate from the 2014 survey recapture was 5220 (95% CI: 4568-5872). A combined best estimate of the PWID population in Hai Phong is 5000, range 4000-6000.Conclusions: The capture/recapture studies produced consistent estimates. Adding a lighter/token distribution to planned RDS surveys may provide an inexpensive method for estimating PWID population size. Analyses of the estimates should include contextual information about the local drug scene.