High-resolution rainfall variability simulated by the WRF RCM: application to eastern France
High-resolution rainfall variability simulated by the WRF RCM: application to eastern France
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-014-2125-5
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发表时间：
2015-02
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Romain Marteau;Y. Richard;B. Pohl;Carmela Chateau Smith;T. Castel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Romain Marteau;Y. Richard;B. Pohl;Carmela Chateau Smith;T. Castel
天气研究和预报（WRF）模型，由ERA中期再分析横向驱动，在这里使用降尺度降雨，在相对较高的分辨率（~8公里）超过勃艮第（法国东部），在1989年至2009年期间。区域模拟相比，法国气象站网络（MFSN; 127日雨量计记录），在不同的时间尺度，包括年际变化，年周期，天气类型。结果表明，WRF模拟的降水气候学空间分布与MFSN观测资料基本一致，但WRF对年降水量的估计偏高约+15%。在年际尺度上，WRF也表现得很好（r ~ 0.8），尽管几乎恒定的，系统的高估。只有年平均降雨周期没有被WRF准确地再现（r ~ 0.5），在春季和夏季，当对流性降雨盛行时，降雨高估。在冬季（6月至3月），当层状降雨盛行时，WRF表现更好。尽管夏季对流事件的偏见，这些结果表明，高分辨率WRF模拟可以成功地用于记录目前和未来的气候变率在区域尺度上。然而，由于高估了对流降雨，WRF模拟的降雨量可能不应该直接用于饲料的影响模式，特别是在夏季的植物。
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven laterally by ERA-Interim reanalyses, is used here to downscale rainfall, at relatively high resolution (~8 km) over Burgundy (eastern France), during the period 1989–2009. Regional simulations are compared to the Météo-France Station Network (MFSN; 127 daily rain-gauge records), at various temporal scales, including interannual variability, the annual cycle, and weather types. Results show that the spatial distribution of WRF-simulated rainfall climatology is consistent with MFSN observation data, but WRF tends to overestimate annual rainfall by ~+15 %. At the interannual scale, WRF also performs very well (r ~ 0.8), despite almost constant, systematic overestimation. Only the average annual rainfall cycle is not accurately reproduced by WRF (r ~ 0.5), with rainfall overestimation in spring and summer, when convective rainfall prevails. During the winter season (October–March), when stratiform rainfall is prevalent, WRF performs better. Despite the biases for summertime convective events, these results suggest that high-resolution WRF simulations could successfully be used to document present and future climate variability at a regional scale. Nevertheless, because of overestimated convective rainfall, WRF-simulated rainfall should probably not be used directly to feed impact models, especially during the vegetative summer period.