Brief Report: Investigating Uncertainty in the Minimum Mortality Temperature: Methods and Application to 52 Spanish Cities.
Brief Report: Investigating Uncertainty in the Minimum Mortality Temperature: Methods and Application to 52 Spanish Cities.
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DOI：
10.1097/ede.0000000000000567
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发表时间：
2017-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Gasparrini A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tobías A;Armstrong B;Gasparrini A
补充数字内容可在文本中找到。在不同气候条件下，城市的最低死亡温度呈J型或u型曲线变化。这种变化传达了关于适应的信息，但由于缺乏一种方法来描述估计的最低死亡温度的不确定性，表征的能力受到限制。我们提出了一个近似参数自举估计置信区间（CI）和标准误差（SE）的最小死亡温度从温度-死亡形状估计样条。在模拟的数据集中，估计ci的覆盖率接近标称值（95%），尽管se略高。将该方法应用于52个西班牙省会城市显示，较热城市的最低死亡温度更高，几乎与年平均温度的上升速度完全相同。所提出的计算样条曲线最小值ci和se的方法可以比较不同城市的最低死亡温度，并适当地研究它们与气候的关系，从而考虑到估计的不确定性。
Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text. The minimum mortality temperature from J- or U-shaped curves varies across cities with different climates. This variation conveys information on adaptation, but ability to characterize is limited by the absence of a method to describe uncertainty in estimated minimum mortality temperatures. We propose an approximate parametric bootstrap estimator of confidence interval (CI) and standard error (SE) for the minimum mortality temperature from a temperature–mortality shape estimated by splines. The coverage of the estimated CIs was close to nominal value (95%) in the datasets simulated, although SEs were slightly high. Applying the method to 52 Spanish provincial capital cities showed larger minimum mortality temperatures in hotter cities, rising almost exactly at the same rate as annual mean temperature. The method proposed for computing CIs and SEs for minimums from spline curves allows comparing minimum mortality temperatures in different cities and investigating their associations with climate properly, allowing for estimation uncertainty.