Macroeconomic impact on the risk management of offshore wind farms
Macroeconomic impact on the risk management of offshore wind farms
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宏观经济对海上风电场风险管理的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.115224
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Yeter B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yeter B
本研究旨在开发一个基于运营和宏观经济数据的风险模型来分析海上风电项目。该研究调查了确定海上风电项目特定风险溢价的基本参数。将这些参数建模为随机变量，并利用蒙特卡罗模拟法进行概率财务分析。为了计算基于经营特征的利率，本研究假设可以写出两个产生相同结果的净现值方程，其中确定性等效现金流量以无风险利率贴现，b)预期现金流量以资本成本贴现。然后通过求解未知资本成本的结果方程来估计与项目相关的风险。宏观经济因素也被考虑在内，因为它们会影响与收入和运营支出相关的不确定性。通过与全球上市可再生能源公司的数据进行比较，验证了用于计算资本成本的模型。最后，以一个虚拟老化海上风电场为例，在不同的经济环境下对所建立的模型进行了验证。参数化研究是针对特定项目的关键参数的影响进行的，例如海上风力涡轮机的数量、寿命延长时间以及与现金流相关的不确定性程度。
The present study aims to develop a risk model to analyse offshore wind projects based on operational and macroeconomic data. The study investigates the underlying parameters defining the project-specific risk premium attached to an offshore wind project. These parameters are modelled as stochastic variables, and a probabilistic financial analysis is conducted using Monte Carlo Simulation. To calculate an interest rate based on operational characteristics, the present study assumes that two net present value equations yielding the same result can be written where certainty equivalent cash flows discounted at the risk-free rate and b) expected cash flows discounted at the cost of capital. The project-related risk is then estimated by solving the resulting equation for the unknown cost of capital. The macroeconomic factors are also considered as they impact the uncertainty associated with revenue and operating expenditure. The model developed to calculate the cost of capital is validated by comparing it with the data obtained for publicly traded renewable energy companies worldwide. Finally, the developed model is demonstrated for a fictitious ageing offshore wind farm under different economic circumstances. The parametric study is conducted on the effect of critical project-specific parameters such as the number of offshore wind turbines, the life extension duration, and the degree of uncertainty related to cash flows.