Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets - the emergence into ozone recovery
Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets - the emergence into ozone recovery
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-18-2097-2018
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发表时间：
2017-09
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
M. Weber;M. Coldewey‐Egbers;V. Fioletov;S. Frith;J. Wild;J. Burrows;C. Long;D. Loyola
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Weber;M. Coldewey‐Egbers;V. Fioletov;S. Frith;J. Wild;J. Burrows;C. Long;D. Loyola
抽象。我们使用1979年至2016年期间卫星和地面观测的不同合并数据集报告最新趋势。通过对年平均纬向平均数据应用多元线性回归（MLR）确定趋势。这里使用的合并数据集包括NASA MOD v8.6和美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）merge v8.6，两者都基于太阳后向散射紫外线（SBUV）和SBUV-2卫星仪器系列的数据（1978年至今）以及全球臭氧监测实验（GOME）型臭氧总量（GTO）和GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2（GSG）合并数据集（1995年至今），主要包括来自GOME、用于大气制图的扫描成像吸收光谱仪（SCIAMACHY）和GOME-2A的卫星数据。第五个数据集由世界臭氧和紫外线数据中心（WOUDC）收集的地面测量的月平均纬向平均数据组成。自世界气象组织（WMO）上一次臭氧评估（2013-2016年）以来增加的四年数据表明，对于大多数数据集和区域，自平流层卤素达到最大值（全球为1996年，极地地区为2000年）以来的趋势大多与零没有显著差异。然而，对于某些纬度，特别是南半球热带外和北方亚热带地区，一些数据集显示出略低于+1%十年-1的小的正趋势，在2σ不确定性水平下几乎没有统计学意义。在热带地区，只有两个数据集显示出+0.5%到+0.8%的显著趋势，而其他数据集则显示出接近零的趋势。自2000年以来，9月在南极洲观测到了正趋势，但10月和3月在北极观测到了接近零的趋势。由于数据集之间可能存在的漂移、用于联合收割机合并卫星数据集的合并程序以及地面数据采样率低而造成的不确定性，未在趋势分析中加以考虑。因此，所恢复的趋势只能被认为是在变得重要的边缘，但有迹象表明，我们即将进入预期的复苏阶段。然而，最近的趋势仍然在很大程度上被所观察到的臭氧总量的年与年之间的巨大动态变化所掩盖。
Abstract. We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978–present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995–present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013–2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (∼ 1996 globally and ∼ 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 % decade−1 that are barely statistically significant at the 2σ uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 % decade−1, while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend analysis. Consequently, the retrieved trends can be only considered to be at the brink of becoming significant, but there are indications that we are about to emerge into the expected recovery phase. However, the recent trends are still considerably masked by the observed large year-to-year dynamical variability in total ozone.