Models of foot-and-mouth disease
Models of foot-and-mouth disease
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2004.3046
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发表时间：
2005-06-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Keeling, MJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keeling, MJ
在2001年英国口蹄疫暴发期间，三个非常不同的模型被用来试图预测疾病动态并为控制措施提供信息。这是第一次在流行病期间使用模型来支持决策过程。模型很可能将在未来的任何牲畜疫情中发挥关键作用，因此，重要的是决策者、兽医和农民了解模型的用途和局限性。这篇综述描述了在2001年使用的三个口蹄疫模型之前的一般模型的实用性。最后，讨论了建模的未来，分析了如果要在随后的任何流行病中成功应用模型所需的进展。
During the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the UK, three very different models were used in an attempt to predict the disease dynamics and inform control measures. This was one of the first times that models had been used during an epidemic to support the decision-making process. It is probable that models will play a pivotal role in any future livestock epidemics, and it is therefore important that decision makers, veterinarians and farmers understand the uses and limitations of models. This review describes the utility of models in general before focusing on the three foot-and-mouth disease models used in 2001. Finally, the future of modelling is discussed, analysing the advances needed if models are to be successfully applied during any subsequent epidemics.