Global Economic Burden of Diabetes in Adults: Projections From 2015 to 2030
Global Economic Burden of Diabetes in Adults: Projections From 2015 to 2030
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DOI：
10.2337/dc17-1962
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发表时间：
2018-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
16.2
通讯作者：
Vollmer, Sebastian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bommer, Christian;Sagalova, Vera;Vollmer, Sebastian
目的尽管糖尿病对全球健康很重要，但该疾病未来的经济后果仍不明朗。我们预测到2030年全球成人糖尿病的全部成本，并预测糖尿病的经济后果，如果可持续发展目标(SDG)和世界卫生组织2013-2020年预防和控制非传染性疾病全球行动计划下的全球目标实现的话。研究设计和方法我们使用流行病学和人口数据以及最近对180个国家的GDP预测，模拟了20-79岁个人糖尿病的绝对和国内生产总值(GDP)-相对经济负担。我们假设了三种情景：患病率和死亡率1)仅随着城市化和人口老龄化而增加(基线情景)，2)按照以前的趋势增长(过去趋势情景)，以及3)实现全球目标(目标情景)。结果全球经济绝对负担将从2015年的1.3万亿美元(95%可信区间1.3-1.4)增加到基线的2.2万亿美元(2.2-2.3)，过去趋势的2.5万亿美元(2.4-2.6)，到2030年，目标情景将达到2.1万亿美元(2.1-2.2美元)。这意味着成本占全球GDP的比例从2015年的1.8%(1.7-1.9)增加到最高2.2%(2.1-2.2)。结论糖尿病及其后果的全球成本是巨大的，到2030年将大幅增加。即使各国达到国际目标，全球经济负担也不会减轻。政策制定者需要采取紧急行动，准备好医疗和社会保障体系，以减轻糖尿病的影响。
OBJECTIVEDespite the importance of diabetes for global health, the future economic consequences of the disease remain opaque. We forecast the full global costs of diabetes in adults through the year 2030 and predict the economic consequences of diabetes if global targets under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and World Health Organization Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Non communicable Diseases 2013-2020 are met.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSWe modeled the absolute and gross domestic product (GDP)-relative economic burden of diabetes in individuals aged 20-79 years using epidemiological and demographic data, as well as recent GDP forecasts for 180 countries. We assumed three scenarios: prevalence and mortality 1) increased only with urbanization and population aging (baseline scenario), 2) increased in line with previous trends (past trends scenario), and 3) achieved global targets (target scenario).RESULTSThe absolute global economic burden will increase from U.S. $1.3 trillion (95% CI 1.3-1.4) in 2015 to $2.2 trillion (2.2-2.3) in the baseline, $2.5 trillion (2.4-2.6) in the past trends, and $2.1 trillion (2.1-2.2) in the target scenarios by 2030. This translates to an increase in costs as a share of global GDP from 1.8%(1.7-1.9) in 2015 to amaximumof 2.2%(2.1-2.2).CONCLUSIONSThe global costs of diabetes and its consequences are large and will substantially increase by 2030. Even if countries meet international targets, the global economic burden will not decrease. Policy makers need to take urgent action to prepare health and social security systems to mitigate the effects of diabetes.