Building a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for Ireland
Building a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for Ireland
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DOI：
10.1002/psp.359
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发表时间：
2005-05-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Wiemers, E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ballas, D;Clarke, GP;Wiemers, E
微观模拟通过模拟个体主体的行为来描述经济和社会事件。事实证明，这些模型有助于在微观一级评价政策变化的影响。空间微观模拟模型包含地理信息，并允许采用区域或地方方法进行政策分析。本文建立在以前的城市系统工作的基础上，采用类似的建模技术对农村地区进行分析。它描述了SMILE（爱尔兰地方经济模拟模型）模型的发展。SMILE是一个动态空间微观模拟模型，旨在分析政策变化和经济发展对爱尔兰农村地区的影响。SMILE的核心是人口模型。它在小地区一级模拟人口变化、生育率、死亡率和国内移徙的基本组成部分。本文介绍了预测郊县人口变化的方法。讨论了1991年和1996年县级动态模型的结果，并与其他方法作了简要比较。最后，讨论了微观模拟模型与其他人口预测模型的区别。版权所有(c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd。
Microsimulation describes economic and social events by modelling the behaviour of individual agents. These models have proved useful in evaluating the impact of policy changes at the micro-level. Spatial microsimulation models contain geographical information and allow for a regional or local approach to policy analysis. This paper builds on previous work on urban systems by employing similar modelling techniques for the analysis of rural areas. It describes the development of the SMILE (Simulation Model for the Irish Local Economy) model. SMILE is a dynamic spatial microsimulation model designed to analyse the impact of policy change and economic development on rural areas in Ireland. At its core, SMILE is a model of population. It simulates the basic components of population change, fertility, mortality and internal migration, at a small area level. This paper describes the method for projecting population change at the subcounty level. Results from the 1991 and 1996 dynamic model at county level are discussed, and a brief comparison is made with other methods. Finally, the features that distinguish microsimulation models from other population projection models are discussed. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.