Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19
Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0231236
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发表时间：
2020-03-31
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Makridakis, Spyros
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Petropoulos, Fotios;Makridakis, Spyros
新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）将对全球产生什么影响？要解决这个问题，需要准确预测确诊病例的传播情况，并分析死亡和康复人数。然而，预测需要大量的历史数据。与此同时，没有任何预测是确定的，因为未来很少以与过去相同的方式重复。此外，预测还受到数据可靠性、既得利益以及预测变量的影响。此外，心理因素在人们如何看待和应对疾病的危险以及对疾病可能影响他们个人的恐惧方面发挥着重要作用。本文介绍了一种客观的方法来预测COVID-19的持续性，使用一种简单但强大的方法来做到这一点。假设所使用的数据可靠，且未来将继续遵循该疾病的过去模式，我们的预测表明，确诊的COVID-19病例将继续增加，相关不确定性相当大。风险远非对称，因为低估其像流行病一样的传播，而没有采取足够的措施来遏制它，这比过度支出和在不需要时过于小心要严重得多。本文件描述了一项对规划和决策具有巨大潜在影响的实时预测工作的时间轴，并为COVID-19确诊病例提供了客观预测。
What will be the global impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)? Answering this question requires accurate forecasting the spread of confirmed cases as well as analysis of the number of deaths and recoveries. Forecasting, however, requires ample historical data. At the same time, no prediction is certain as the future rarely repeats itself in the same way as the past. Moreover, forecasts are influenced by the reliability of the data, vested interests, and what variables are being predicted. Also, psychological factors play a significant role in how people perceive and react to the danger from the disease and the fear that it may affect them personally. This paper introduces an objective approach to predicting the continuation of the COVID-19 using a simple, but powerful method to do so. Assuming that the data used is reliable and that the future will continue to follow the past pattern of the disease, our forecasts suggest a continuing increase in the confirmed COVID-19 cases with sizable associated uncertainty. The risks are far from symmetric as underestimating its spread like a pandemic and not doing enough to contain it is much more severe than overspending and being over careful when it will not be needed. This paper describes the timeline of a live fore-casting exercise with massive potential implications for planning and decision making and provides objective forecasts for the confirmed cases of COVID-19.