Dollarization in Lebanon
Dollarization in Lebanon
复制标题
黎巴嫩的美元化
DOI：
10.5089/9781451934618.001.a001
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发表时间：
1994
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Johannes Mueller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Johannes Mueller
黎巴嫩在长达 15 年的内战期间和之后经历了大规模的美元化。本文利用两种计量经济学模型分析了黎巴嫩经济美元化背后的驱动力，这些模型除了美元化现象实证研究中通常包含的决定因素外，还特别考虑了美元化过程的有限可逆性。后者是通过包含棘轮变量来建模的，这意味着本币和外币之间存在不对称的替代过程。在应用的不同定义中，棘轮效应被发现是显着的。此外，预期贬值、存量调整变量以及当黎巴嫩居民跨境存款纳入分析时，利率差异也是黎巴嫩美元化进程的其他统计上显着的决定因素。
Lebanon has experienced large-scale dollarization during and after its 15-year long civil war. This paper analyzes the driving forces behind the dollarization of the Lebanese economy, using two econometric models that, apart from determinants commonly included in empirical studies on the dollarization phenomenon, also specifically take into account the limited reversibility of the dollarization process. The latter is modeled through the inclusion of a ratchet variable, which implies an asymmetric substitution process between domestic and foreign currency. The ratchet effect, in the different definitions applied, is found to be significant. In addition, the expected depreciation, a stock adjustment variable and, when cross-border deposits of Lebanese residents are included in the analysis, also the interest rate differential are other statistically significant determinants of the dollarization process in Lebanon.