Future fire risk under climate change and deforestation scenarios in tropical Borneo
Future fire risk under climate change and deforestation scenarios in tropical Borneo
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/acb225
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发表时间：
2023-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
T. Davies-Barnard;J. Catto;A. Harper;M. Imron;F. V. van Veen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Davies-Barnard;J. Catto;A. Harper;M. Imron;F. V. van Veen
婆罗洲热带泥炭地森林火灾是一个与气候变化和森林砍伐相互作用的环境问题，其后果具有地方和全球影响。虽然研究表明，火灾的严重程度和频率预计将随着气候变化而增加，但关于森林砍伐对降水的影响，存在相互矛盾的模型和观测数据，这是火灾风险的关键指标。为了更好地了解森林砍伐和气候变化引起的火灾风险变化，我们使用区域气候模型RegCM4对RCP8.5气候情景进行了模拟，其中有和没有森林砍伐。然后将输出用于计算火灾天气指数。我们发现，在RCP8.5中，海拔500 m以上森林砍伐造成的年气温变化是21世纪变化的53%。火灾风险受到气候变化和森林砍伐的严重影响，尽管森林砍伐导致降水量有所增加。虽然多模式旱季（6月至8月）的平均火灾风险增加较大，从大气二氧化碳浓度升高，最大火灾风险的增加较大，从森林砍伐。海拔高度是火灾风险变化的一个很好的预测因子，在泥炭地集中的人口密度较低的海拔高度增加较大，而在较高的海拔高度增加较小。因此，虽然森林砍伐通常比气候变化引起的与气候有关的火灾风险增加要小，但与全球碳排放相比，其局部控制和异质效应对气候减缓政策至关重要。这些高分辨率的模拟为婆罗洲最脆弱的地区提供了指导，使其免受气候火灾风险增加的影响。
Fire in the tropical peatland forests of Borneo is an environmental issue interactioning with climate change and deforestation, and the consequences have local and global implications. While research has shown that fire severity and frequency are expected to increase with climate change, there is conflicting model and observational data as to the effect of deforestation on precipitation, which is a key metric for fire risk. To better understand the changes in fire risk from deforestation and climate change we ran simulations of the climate scenario RCP8.5 with and without total deforestation using regional climate model RegCM4. The output was then used for calculations of the fire weather index. We find that annual temperature change from deforestation at elevations above 500 m is 53% of the change over the 21st century in RCP8.5. Fire risk is significantly affected by both climate change and deforestation, despite some increases in precipitation from deforestation. While the multi model dry season (June–August) mean increases in fire risk are larger from elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, the increases in maximum fire risk are larger from deforestation. The altitude is a good predictor of fire risk change, with larger increases at more densely populated lower elevations where the peatlands are concentrated and smaller increases at higher elevations. Therefore, while deforestation generally causes a smaller increase in climate-related fire risk than climate change, its local control and heterogeneous effects compared to global carbon emissions makes it critical for climate mitigation policy. These high-resolution simulations provide a guide to the most vulnerable areas of Borneo from climatic increases in fire risk.