Ten thousand and increasing: Is the western Arctic population of bowhead whale endangered?
Ten thousand and increasing: Is the western Arctic population of bowhead whale endangered?
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一万头且还在增加：北极西部的弓头鲸种群是否濒临灭绝？
DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2007.03.024
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
D. Demaster
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Gerber;A. Keller;D. Demaster
根据23年来的11次数量估计，北极西部弓头鲸（WABW）的数量自被列入美国濒危物种法案以来已经大幅恢复。我们评估了WABW的灭绝风险，以确定该种群是否应考虑根据ESA重新分类。考虑到与区分过程误差和观测误差相关的不确定性，我们考虑了反映过程误差不同假设的三种情况。我们使用Gerber， l.r., DeMaster, d.p.， 1999提出的方法应用了恢复和退市的定量标准。北太平洋座头鲸濒危物种行为分类的探讨。[j] .海洋生物学报，1999,19(3):444 - 444。为了进一步检查监测过程并对未来的数据需求提出建议，我们然后使用逐步缩小的人口普查数据子样本重新运行模型。考虑到较长的时间序列数据，与“退市”决定一致的结果的比例增加。对于第10年和第11年人口普查的子集，数据明确支持在3种情况下将该人口除名的决定。此外，在我们的任何情况下，这个弓头鲸种群都不符合世界自然保护联盟对濒危和易危的标准。人口预测和风险分类标准的应用结果与确定该种群的灭绝风险在可预见的未来是微不足道的一致。
Based on a series of 11 abundance estimates over 23 years, the western Arctic population of bowhead whale (WABW) has recovered substantially since it was listed under the US Endangered Species Act. We evaluate extinction risk for WABW to determine if this population should be considered for reclassification under the ESA. Given the uncertainty associated with distinguishing process error and observation error, we consider three scenarios reflecting different assumptions for process error. We applied the quantitative criteria for recovery and delisting using the approach proposed by [Gerber, L.R., DeMaster, D.P., 1999. An approach to endangered species act classification of North Pacific humpback whales. Conservation Biology, 13, 1203–1214] for large whales. To further examine the monitoring process and make recommendations for future data needs, we then re-ran the model using progressively smaller sub-samples of the census data. As longer time series of data were considered, the fraction of outcomes consistent with a “delisting” decision increased. For the 10 and 11-census year subsets, data unequivocally support a decision to delist this population for the 3 scenarios. Furthermore, the IUCN criteria for endangered and vulnerable are not met for this population of bowhead whale under any of our scenarios. Results from the population projections and application of the risk classification criteria are consistent with a determination that the risk of extinction for this population is insignificant in the foreseeable future.