Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback.
Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback.
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.adf9302
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发表时间：
2023-04-21
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Williams, Richard G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cael, B. B.;Bloch-Johnson, Jonah;Ceppi, Paulo;Fredriksen, Hege-Beate;Goodwin, Philip;Gregory, Jonathan M.;Smith, Christopher J.;Williams, Richard G.
气候反馈决定了地球的气候如何对人为强迫作出反应。据认为，近几十年来，由于海洋表面温度的“模式效应”，全球变暖集中在热带太平洋西部，非局部辐射反馈非常消极。然而，这一现象主要是在气候模型中研究的。我们从历史记录中诊断出一种模式效应，作为过去五十年气候反馈的演变。我们的分析假设气候反馈的变化率是恒定的，这是事后证明的。我们发现，在过去的50年里，气候反馈减少了0.8 ± 0.5 W m−2 K−1，这与气候敏感性的降低相对应。地球系统模型的气候反馈在此期间反而增加。了解和模拟这一历史趋势及其未来演变对于可靠的气候预测至关重要。能源预算记录表明，在过去50年中，地球的气候反馈已经变得更加负面。
The climate feedback determines how Earth’s climate responds to anthropogenic forcing. It is thought to have been more negative in recent decades due to a sea surface temperature “pattern effect,” whereby warming is concentrated in the western tropical Pacific, where nonlocal radiative feedbacks are very negative. This phenomenon has however primarily been studied within climate models. We diagnose a pattern effect from historical records as an evolution of the climate feedback over the past five decades. Our analysis assumes a constant rate of change of the climate feedback, which is justified post hoc. We find a decrease in climate feedback by 0.8 ± 0.5 W m−2 K−1 over the past 50 years, corresponding to a reduction in climate sensitivity. Earth system models’ climate feedbacks instead increase over this period. Understanding and simulating this historical trend and its future evolution are critical for reliable climate projections. Energy budget records indicate that Earth's climate feedback has become substantially more negative over the past 50 years.
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影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Dong, Yue;Proistosescu, Cristian;Battisti, David S.
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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