Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future storm surge
Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future storm surge
复制标题
评估预测未来风暴潮的不确定性
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-020-02782-7
复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Hajime Mase
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jung-A Yang;Sooyoul Kim;Sangyoung Son;Nobuhito Mori;Hajime Mase
基于四种海表温度条件和三种全球变暖情景下的台风数据，利用单一大气全球气候模式对未来极端风暴潮高度（SSH）预测的不确定性进行了评估。本研究特别关注以北纬32 ~ 40°、东经122 ~ 132°为范围的朝鲜半岛（KP）一带的台风，预测在未来给定的条件下，影响KP的台风数量将减少4~73%，而强度将增加0.8~1.4%。在所有集合实验条件下，预计台风的发生和裂解位置分别向西北和东北方向移动。然而，它们的变化程度取决于未来海温和全球变暖条件。利用预报的台风资料作为外力进行风暴潮模拟。研究发现，未来海温模式和气候变暖情景会影响未来台风特征，进而影响未来气候条件下极端海平面高度值和风暴潮易损区位置。特别是极端海平面高度值和风暴潮易损区位置似乎受到强台风路径和频率的强烈影响。
We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons.