Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections
Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections
复制标题
DOI：
10.5194/tc-12-1157-2018
复制
发表时间：
2018-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
L. Mudryk;C. Derksen;S. Howell;F. Laliberté;C. Thackeray;R. Sospedra‐Alfonso;V. Vionnet;P. Kushner;Ross D. Brown
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Mudryk;C. Derksen;S. Howell;F. Laliberté;C. Thackeray;R. Sospedra‐Alfonso;V. Vionnet;P. Kushner;Ross D. Brown
抽象的。加拿大海洋冰雪演变网络（CanSISE）是一个气候研究网络，重点是开发和应用最先进的观测数据，以推进对加拿大和北极圈季节性积雪和海冰的动态预测、预测和了解。在这里，我们提出了一个评估从CanSISE网络的雪盖（分数，水当量）和海冰（面积，浓度，类型和厚度）在加拿大各地的历史记录的趋势。我们还评估了本世纪中叶可能发生的积雪和海冰的预计变化，正如耦合模型相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）地球系统模型套件所模拟的那样。历史数据集显示，加拿大陆地和海洋地区被冰雪覆盖的比例随着时间的推移而减少，趋势的季节性和区域性变化与地表温度趋势的区域差异一致。特别是，夏季海冰覆盖率在几乎所有加拿大海洋区域都大幅下降，博福特海和加拿大北极群岛的多年冰损失率在过去8年中几乎翻了一番。2020-2050年期间的多模式共识显示，秋季和春季积雪覆盖率和海冰浓度每十年减少5- 10%（或总共减少15- 30%），哈德逊湾和加拿大东部沃茨冬季海冰浓度也有类似的减少。预计整个加拿大南部的融化前陆地雪水当量峰值每十年减少高达10%（总计30%）。
Abstract. The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE Network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of Earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last 8 years. The multi-model consensus over the 2020–2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5–10 % per decade (or 15–30 % in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10 % per decade (30 % in total) are projected across southern Canada.