Future hydroclimatology of the Mekong River basin simulated using the high-resolution Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AGCM
Future hydroclimatology of the Mekong River basin simulated using the high-resolution Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AGCM
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.6947
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发表时间：
2008-04-30
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kiem, Anthony S.;Ishidaira, Hiroshi;Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi
对未来日本气象厅大气环流模型（JMA AGCM）基于湄公河流域（MRB）气候情景的分析表明，21世纪（2080-2099年）整个流域的年平均降水量将增加4.2%，其中大部分增加发生在湄公河流域北部（即中国）。年平均气温预计也将增加约 2.6 摄氏度（MRB 的平均值）。正如预期的那样，这些变化也导致了 MRB 水文的重大变化。所有 MRB 子流域在“未来”都会经历潮湿天数的增加，对于可持续水资源管理和减轻极端事件（例如洪水和干旱）来说，重要的是，现在被认为是极端事件的规模和频率预计也会增加，导致洪水风险增加，但干旱/低流量时期的可能性会降低——假设取水保持在可持续水平。尽管气候变化影响预测存在很大的不确定性，但重要的是立即采取行动，制定政策、基础设施和缓解战略，以防止可能发生的洪水增加。此外，尽管这项研究表明大部分MRB的“低流量”天数有所减少，但仍需要进一步分析以确定低流量天数的减少是否足以补偿（并维持）MRB快速增长的人口和发展。版权所有 (C) 2008 约翰·威利父子有限公司
Analysis of future Japan Meteorological Agency atmospheric general circulation model (JMA AGCM) based climate scenarios for the Mekong River basin (MRB) indicates that annual mean precipitation will increase in the 21st century (2080-2099) by 4.2% averaged across the basin, with the majority of this increase occurring over the northern MRB (i.e. China). Annual mean temperatures are also projected to increase by approximately 2.6 degrees C (averaged across the MRB). As expected, these changes also lead to significant changes in the hydrology of the MRB. All MRB subbasins will experience an increase in the number of wet days in the 'future' and, importantly for sustainable water resources management and the mitigation of extreme events (e.g. floods and droughts), the magnitude and frequency of what are now considered extreme events are also expected to increase resulting in increased risk of flooding, but a reduction in the likelihood of droughts/low -flow periods-assuming water extraction is kept at a sustainable level. Despite the fact that the climate change impact projections are associated with significant uncertainty, it is important to act now and put in place policies, infrastructure and mitigation strategies to protect against the increased flooding that could occur. In addition, despite this study indicating a decrease in the number of 'low-flow' days, across most of the MRB, further analysis is needed to determine whether the reduction in low-flow days is enough to compensate for (and sustain) the rapidly increasing population and development in the MRB. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.