An integrated approach for physical, economic, and demographic evaluation of coastal flood hazard adaptation in Santa Monica Bay, California
An integrated approach for physical, economic, and demographic evaluation of coastal flood hazard adaptation in Santa Monica Bay, California
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加利福尼亚州圣莫尼卡湾沿海洪水灾害适应的物理、经济和人口统计综合评估方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
P. Barnard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Klaus Schroder;M. Hummel;K. Befus;P. Barnard
气候变化导致的海平面上升带来的沿海洪灾风险增加，有可能使社区流离失所，并对基础设施造成重大破坏。为减轻洪水对沿海居民和建成环境的负面影响，有必要制定针对具体地点的适应计划。用于评估沿海适应战略的成本效益分析传统上侧重于经济考虑，往往忽视可能直接影响沿海社区脆弱性的潜在人口影响。在这里，我们提出了一个可移植的框架，该框架将海平面上升和风暴情景导致的洪水的水动力学模拟与特定地点的建筑存量和人口普查区块级别的人口数据相结合。我们评估了多种海岸适应战略在减少洪水、经济损失和对当地人口的影响方面的有效性。我们应用这个框架来评估加州圣莫尼卡湾部分地区的一系列工程、基于自然和混合的适应战略。总体而言，我们发现，在减少或消除洪水、破坏和人口影响方面，使用沙丘或海堤沿着海滩提供保护和使用水闸沿着水口提供保护的双重方法效果最好。包括闸门和沿海滩部分保护或不保护的适应策略有效地减少了进水口周围的洪水，但可能会加剧其他地方的洪水，导致对居民的意外影响。我们的结果还表明，经济和社会降低风险的优先事项之间存在权衡。拟议的框架允许对多个目标的沿海保护战略进行全面评价。了解沿海适应战略如何影响当地范围内的水动力、经济和社会因素，可以采取更有效和更公平的规划方法。
The increased risk of coastal flooding associated with climate-change driven sea level rise threatens to displace communities and cause substantial damage to infrastructure. Site-specific adaptation planning is necessary to mitigate the negative impacts of flooding on coastal residents and the built environment. Cost-benefit analyses used to evaluate coastal adaption strategies have traditionally focused on economic considerations, often overlooking potential demographic impacts that can directly influence vulnerability in coastal communities. Here, we present a transferable framework that couples hydrodynamic modeling of flooding driven by sea level rise and storm scenarios with site-specific building stock and census block-level demographic data. We assess the efficacy of multiple coastal adaptation strategies at reducing flooding, economic damages, and impacts to the local population. We apply this framework to evaluate a range of engineered, nature-based, and hybrid adaptation strategies for a portion of Santa Monica Bay, California. Overall, we find that dual approaches that provide protection along beaches using dunes or seawalls and along inlets using sluice gates perform best at reducing or eliminating flooding, damages, and population impacts. Adaptation strategies that include a sluice gate and partial or no protection along the beach are effective at reducing flooding around inlets but can exacerbate flooding elsewhere, leading to unintended impacts on residents. Our results also indicate trade-offs between economic and social risk-reduction priorities. The proposed framework allows for a comprehensive evaluation of coastal protection strategies across multiple objectives. Understanding how coastal adaptation strategies affect hydrodynamic, economic, and social factors at a local scale can enable more effective and equitable planning approaches.
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.09.013
发表时间：
2015-12-01
影响因子：
5
作者：
Rufat, Samuel;Tate, Eric;Maroof, Abu Sayeed
通讯作者：
Maroof, Abu Sayeed