Pension Reform with Variable Retirement Age - A Simulation Analysis for Germany
Pension Reform with Variable Retirement Age - A Simulation Analysis for Germany
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可变退休年龄的养老金改革——德国的模拟分析
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1625789
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
F. Kindermann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Fehr;M. Kallweit;F. Kindermann
2007年，德国推出了养老金改革，将正常退休年龄从目前的65岁提高到67岁。本研究的目的是通过一个可计算的一般均衡模型与世代重叠，量化的宏观经济，福利和效率的后果，这一改革。我们的模型采用了最新的人口预测，并区分了几代人内具有不同预期寿命的三种技能类别。最重要的是，个人在退出劳动力市场并开始领取养老金福利时选择了有效年龄。我们的定量分析显示了三个主要结果：第一，以前实施的养老金削减无法稳定长期缴费率，并大大增加了德国未来的老年贫困率。第二，考虑中的改革将把有效退休年龄提高约一年，并向未来的同龄人重新分配。然而，它几乎没有减少老年贫困，因为富人在调整退休方面更灵活。总的来说，改革的效率提高非常有限。第三，补充政策应提高精算调整系数，而旨在减少老年贫困的其他改革方案可能与重大的效率成本有关。
In 2007 Germany has introduced a pension reform which increases the normal retirement age from currently age 65 to 67. The present study aims to quantify the macroeconomic, welfare and efficiency consequences of this reform by means of a computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. Our model features the most recent demographic projections and distinguishes three skill classes with different life expectancies within generations. Most importantly, individuals choose their effective age when they exit from the labor market and start receiving pension benefits. Our quantitative analysis indicates three central results: First, the previously implemented pension reductions are not able to stabilize long-run contribution rates and increase future old-age poverty rates in Germany considerably. Second, the considered reform will increase effective retirement age by about one year and redistribute towards future cohorts. However, it hardly reduces old-age poverty since rich people are more flexible in adjusting retirement. Overall, the efficiency gains of the reform are very modest. Third, supplementary policy should raise the actuarial adjustment factor while other reform packages aimed to reduce old-age poverty may be associated with significant efficiency cost.