Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession
Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession
复制标题
DOI：
10.1057/imfer.2010.15
复制
发表时间：
2010-12-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Yi, Kei-Mu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bems, Rudolfs;Johnson, Robert C.;Yi, Kei-Mu
本文使用全球投入产出框架来量化美国的经济增长。S.和欧盟（EU）的需求溢出效应以及2008-09年全球经济衰退期间世界贸易对GDP的弹性。跨界中间产品联系对冲击的传递以及各国之间的需求、贸易和生产关系具有影响。本文发现，美国和欧盟最终需求下降的20%-30%是由外国承担的，其中北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）和新兴欧洲受到的打击最大。允许所有国家的最终需求同时变化，这里提出的框架提供了2.8的世界贸易对GDP的弹性。因此，仅需求力量就可以解释大约70%的贸易崩溃。耐用品需求的巨大变化在推动这些结果方面发挥了重要作用。[JEL F4，F1] IMF Economic Review（2010）58，295-326. doi：10.1057/imfer.2010.15; 2010年11月9日在线发布
This paper uses a global input-output framework to quantify U. S. and European Union (EU) demand spillovers and the elasticity of world trade to GDP during the global recession of 2008-09. Cross-border intermediate goods linkages have implications for the transmission of shocks and the relationship between demand, trade, and production across countries. This paper finds that 20-30 percent of the decline in U.S. and EU final demand was borne by foreign countries, with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and emerging Europe hit hardest. Allowing final demand to change in all countries simultaneously, the framework presented here delivers an elasticity of world trade to GDP of 2.8. Thus, demand forces alone can account for roughly 70 percent of the trade collapse. Large changes in demand for durables play an important role in driving these results. [JEL F4, F1] IMF Economic Review (2010) 58, 295-326. doi:10.1057/imfer.2010.15; published online 9 November 2010