Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action
Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-019-0426-8
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发表时间：
2019-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Garner, G. G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lamontagne, J. R.;Reed, P. M.;Garner, G. G.
将气候变化减缓政策的相对重要性从决定其绩效的人地系统(HES)不确定性中分离出来是具有挑战性的，因为两者是不可阻挡的联系，而且这种联系的性质是动态的、互动的和特定于指标的(1)。在这里，我们展示了一种方法来量化不同的HES不确定性和我们在减排政策中的选择在决定未来气候和经济条件中所起的个人和联合作用，正如气候与经济动态综合模型的改进版本(2，3)所模拟的那样。尽管存在广泛的不确定性，但全球减排的增长率(一种社会选择)是长期变暖的主要驱动因素。这不是我们能否限制全球变暖的问题，而是我们是否选择这样做的问题。我们的结果阐明了重要的长期HES动态，这些动态经常被常见的时间聚合指标所掩盖。短期内大刀阔斧的减排代价将非常高昂，而且对近期变暖的影响甚微。相反，未来几代人将经历的气候变暖将主要是由更早的减排行动推动的。我们根据气候对大气二氧化碳浓度的敏感性，量化了可容忍的气候/经济后果的概率减排途径(4，5)。即使在对气候敏感性的乐观假设下，通往可容忍的气候/经济未来的道路也在迅速缩小。
Disentangling the relative importance of climate change abatement policies from the human-Earth system (HES) uncertainties that determine their performance is challenging because the two are inexorably linked, and the nature of this linkage is dynamic, interactive and metric specific(1). Here, we demonstrate an approach to quantify the individual and joint roles that diverse HES uncertainties and our choices in abatement policy play in determining future climate and economic conditions, as simulated by an improved version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy(2,3). Despite wide-ranging HES uncertainties, the growth rate of global abatement (a societal choice) is the primary driver of long-term warming. It is not a question of whether we can limit warming but whether we choose to do so. Our results elucidate important long-term HES dynamics that are often masked by common time-aggregated metrics. Aggressive near-term abatement will be very costly and do little to impact near-term warming. Conversely, the warming that will be experienced by future generations will mostly be driven by earlier abatement actions. We quantify probabilistic abatement pathways to tolerable climate/economic outcomes(4,5), conditional on the climate sensitivity to the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Even under optimistic assumptions about the climate sensitivity, pathways to a tolerable climate/economic future are rapidly narrowing.